Estimate for 2011
Demand for OPEC crude for last year remained unchanged from the previous assessment, as world oil demand, non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs saw minor revisions. All quarters together indicated a minor revision of less than 20,000 b/d. At 30.1 mb/d, the demand for OPEC crude stood at 0.4 mb/d above a year ago. 1Q12 and 2Q12 showed growth of 1.0 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d, respectively, while both 3Q12 and 4Q12 saw growth of 0.1 mb/d compared to the same period in the previous year.
Forecast for 2012
The demand for OPEC crude in 2012 is projected to average 29.9 mb/d, around 30,000 b/d less than in the previous report. Within the quarters, 1Q12 saw a downward adjustment of 0.3 mb/d, reflecting the downward revision of 230 tb/d in world oil demand combined with an upward revision of 40 tb/d in non-OPEC supply. In contrast, 4Q12 shows an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d, while 2Q12 and 3Q12 remain unchanged. Required OPEC crude is forecast to see negative growth of about 0.1 mb/d from 2011. 1Q12 is estimated to decline by 0.7 mb/d, 2Q12 is projected to increase by 0.1 mb/d, while 3Q12 and 4Q12 are both forecast to remain unchanged, all in comparison to their respective quarters a year ago.