Asia’s oil supply is estimated to increase by 50 tb/d in 2012 to average 3.67 mb/d, unchanged from the previous assessment. This steady state has occurred because updated production data has remained in line with expectations. Oil supply from India and Vietnam is expected to increase in 2012, while supply from Indonesia is seen to decline.
Malaysia’s oil production is expected to average 0.65 mb/d in 2012, flat from the previous year. Production from Malaysia is forecast to remain steady in 2012, after the heavy decline experienced in 2011, because output is likely to remain stable, despite limited new developments. India’s oil supply is forecast to increase by 20 tb/d in 2012, to average 0.90 mb/d.
This minor increase is supported by the Mangala developments. On a quarterly basis, Other Asia’s supply is expected to stand at 3.65 mb/d, 3.67 mb/d, 3.68 mb/d and 3.70 mb/d respectively. Preliminary data suggests that supply in the first quarter will witness a y-o-y decline of 50 tb/d. Indonesia’s oil supply is forecast to decline by 30 tb/d in 2012 to average 0.99 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month. This drop is expected on the back of aging fields and natural declines, coupled with limited new developments. Vietnam’s oil production is expected to experience the largest growth in the group of 40 tb/d in 2012, to average 0.39 mb/d. This growth is supported by the Te Giac Trang field, which has already started up, and, in July, a second well is expected to boost output to 55 tb/d.