However, a high level of risk and uncertainty surrounds the DCs’ forecast, including political, technical, price, decline-rate and weather issues. Accordingly, it is subject to revision in both directions. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply in the DCs in 2013 is forecast to average 12.48 mb/d, 12.52 mb/d, 12.75 mb/d and 12.94 mb/d respectively. Other Asia’s oil supply is expected to increase by 50 tb/d over 2012 to average 3.72 mb/d in 2013.
Malaysia’s supply is seen to lead this growth and average 0.69 mb/d, an increase of 40 tb/d over 2012, supported by output rises from the Cendor, Gumusut, Kikeh and Sepat developments. Production from the expansion of the Kikeh project and Gumusut is likely to strongly support output in 2013. India’s supply is expected to increase by 30 tb/d in 2013 over this year and average 0.93 mb/d. It will be supported by the ramp-up of the Mangala developments. Vietnam’s supply is seen to average 0.39 mb/d in 2013, an increase of 10 tb/d over the previous year. This will see new barrels from such developments as Moc Tinh, Hai Su Trang, Hai Su Den, and Te Giac Trang.
Indonesia’s supply is expected to decline by 30 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.94 mb/d. This is because limited new volumes will fail to offset projected natural declines in mature producing areas. Despite this, output from the Cepu project is likely to experience some growth in 2013, as the operator recently reported that the field will reach peak output of 160 tb/d by the end of 2014. Thailand’s production is forecast to decline by 10 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.33 mb/d. The anticipated decline rate in mature producing areas is seen as driving this, coupled with limited new developments. On a quarterly basis, Other Asia’s oil supply in 2013 is seen to stand at 3.68 mb/d, 3.71 mb/d, 3.73 mb/d and 3.75 mb/d respectively.