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Oil Trade - December 2016

Source: OPEC_RP161210 12/14/2016, Location: Europe

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Preliminary data for November shows that US crude oil imports increased by 114 tb/d from the previous month to an average of 7.8 mb/d, and up by 413 tb/d from one year ago. US monthly product imports also were up in November by 316 tb/d, or 16%, to average 2.4 mb/d. Year-on-year, product imports were up by 570 tb/d.

Japan’s crude oil imports dropped in October by 182 tb/d, or 6%, to average 3.1 mb/d. In a y-o-y comparison, crude imports also declined by 67 tb/d, or 2%. However, product imports were stable, averaging 440 tb/d, reflecting a drop of 23% y-o-y.

Following record-high levels for Chinese crude imports in September, October figures saw them significantly decline; they dropped by 1.3 mb/d, or 16%, to average 6.8 mb/d. In an annual comparison, they remained higher than in the same period the previous year by 575 tb/d, or 9%. China’s petroleum product imports also declined in October, dropping by 14% m-o-m and down by 8% from the same month of the previous year.

India’s crude imports declined by 48 tb/d, or 1%, from the previous month to average 4.3 mb/d. Crude imports showed an annual increase of 610 tb/d, or 17%. India’s import of products in October rose marginally by 5 tb/d, or 1%, m-o-m to average 815 tb/d, while increasing y-o-y by 137 tb/d.

US
Preliminary data for November shows that US crude oil imports increased over the month to average 7.8 mb/d, up by 114 tb/d from the previous month and 413 tb/d from a year earlier. On a year-to-date basis, US crude imports in November were higher by 550 tb/d.

US monthly product imports also were up in November by 316 tb/d, or 16%, to average 2.4 mb/d. In an annual comparison, product imports were up by 570 tb/d.

Total US exported products in November reached 4.6 mb/d, up by 505 tb/d from a month earlier. Annually, product exports were down by 29 tb/d or 1%. As a result, US total net imports were lower than in the previous month to average 5.1 mb/d, showing a drop of 106 tb/d from the year before.

The top first and second suppliers to the US in September remained the same as before. Canada was the premier crude supplier to the US, accounting for 41% of total US crude imports, reflecting a minor change from the previous month, down by 7 tb/d. Saudi Arabia maintained its status as second-largest supplier to the US in September. Saudi exports rose from the previous month by 67 tb/d. Venezuela came in as third top supplier, accounting for 10% of total US crude imports, with higher volumes from a month earlier of 63 tb/d, or 6%.

Crude imports from OPEC Member Countries went up in September from one month earlier by 196 tb/d, or 6%, accounting for 41% of total US crude imports. US product imports from OPEC Member Countries declined in September from the previous month by 46 tb/d, or 15%. Canada and Russia maintained their positions as first and second product suppliers to the US, accounting for 24% and 16%, respectively, though imports from both countries were lower in September. Algeria was the third-largest supplier to US, though down by 26 tb/d, or 7%, from the previous month.

Looking into US crude imports by region, September imports from North America averaged 3.3 mb/d, making it the top importing region to the US, followed by Latin America and the Middle East, which came in as second- and third-biggest regional suppliers to stand at 2.1 mb/d and 2 mb/d, respectively. Imports from North America stayed about the same, with no major changes from the previous month, while those from the Middle East increased by 200 tb/d.

Regarding crude imports by PADD; PADD 1 crude imports declined from all regions from one month before, with OECD Europe being the only exception, from where imports rose by 73 tb/d. PADD 2 imports continued to be largely covered by North America, averaging 2.2 mb/d, flat from a month before. Imports from the Middle East only averaged 24 tb/d for PADD 2 in September. In PADD 3, Latin America and the Middle East remained the main exporters, with average volumes of 1.6 mb/d and 1.3 mb/d, respectively. As seen previously, all imports to PADD 4 arrived solely from North America, averaging 299 tb/d in September, up by 34 tb/d from the month before.

Imports to PADD 5 came from different regions, though remaining primarily covered by the Middle East and Latin America. Both regions showed higher volumes from the previous month by 107 tb/d and 54 tb/d, respectively.

Japan
Japan’s crude oil imports dropped in October by 182 tb/d, or 6%, to average 3.1 mb/d. Y-o-y, crude imports also declined in October by 67 tb/d, or 2%.

As to supplier share, Saudi Arabia and the UAE remained the main suppliers to Japan, holding shares of 41% and 23%, respectively. Qatar held the third position in October with a share of 7%, while volumes from Saudi Arabia rose by 233 tb/d. Imports from the UAE and Qatar were down from a month earlier by 146 tb/d and 101 tb/d, respectively.

On the other hand, product imports were stable in October, averaging 440 tb/d and reflecting a drop of 23% y-o-y. Following 13 consecutive months of annual decline, domestic product sales reached a 34-year low in the month of October.

Japan’s product exports in October dropped by 169 tb/d, or 25%, to average 494 tb/d. In a y-o-y comparison, they went down by 100 tb/d from a year before.

Accordingly, Japan’s net imports were broadly unchanged in October, dipping by a slight 7 tb/d, to average 3 mb/d.

China
Following gains seen in previous months, China’s crude imports declined significantly in October, after reaching record-high levels in September. The country’s crude imports dropped by 1.3 mb/d, or 16%, to average 6.8 mb/d. In an annual comparison, they remained higher than in the same period the previous year by 575 tb/d, or 9%. Year-todate, crude imports showed a gain of 876 tb/d, or 13%.

China’s petroleum product imports also declined in October, down by 14% m-o-m, less by 8% from the same month of the previous year.

Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq were top suppliers to China in October, accounting for 17%, 14% and 13%, respectively. Russia came in as top supplier to China, as it raised exported volumes by 154 tb/d from one month earlier, while Saudi Arabian and Iraqi exports to China declined by 14 tb/d and 114 tb/d, respectively. IR Iran came in as fourth-largest supplier to China in October, with higher imports by 282 tb/d.

Following a gain in exports seen the previous month, China’s product exports dropped by 97 tb/d, or 8%, to average 1.1 mb/d.

China’s crude exports also decreased in October by 36 tb/d. As a result, China’s net oil imports decreased by 1.3 mb/d from the previous month to average 6.6 mb/d. However, they remain above the previous year’s level by 220 tb/d.

India
India’s crude imports in October declined by 48 tb/d, or 1%, from the previous month, to average 4.3 mb/d. Crude imports showed an annual increase of 610 tb/d, or 17%.

On the other hand, India’s product imports in October rose slightly by 5 tb/d, or 1%, m-o-m to average 815 tb/d, while y-o-y they increased by 137 tb/d. Higher annual product imports in October came mainly on the back of higher imported volumes of LPG, which saw an increase of 111 tb/d.

India’s product exports dropped in October by 34 tb/d, or 2%, to average 1.5 mb/d, their lowest level since April 2015. On a y-o-y basis, product exports showed an increase of 414 tb/d. Annual product export increases came on the back of higher diesel and naphtha exports, which went up by 216 tb/d and 109 tb/d, respectively, from the previous month.

Consequently, India’s net imports stayed broadly unchanged from the previous month to average 3.6 mb/d, reflecting a gain of 333 tb/d, or 10%, y-o-y.

FSU
In October, total crude oil exports from the former Soviet Union (FSU) increased by 249 tb/d, or 4%, to average 7 mb/d. Crude exports through Russian pipelines went up as well by a slight 31 tb/d, or 1%, to average 4.4 mb/d.

Total shipments from the Black Sea dropped by 142 tb/d, or 21%, to average 532 tb/d as a result of lower exports through the Novorossiysk port terminal. Meanwhile, total Baltic Sea exports rose by 248 tb/d in October. The higher volumes came as both the Primorsk and the Ust Luga port terminals exported greater volumes from a month earlier. Total shipments through the Druzhba pipeline stayed almost flat from the previous month, averaging 1.1 mb/d in October. Kozmino shipments declined by 71 tb/d, or 10%, to average 324 tb/d.

Exports through the Lukoil system all dropped in October from the previous month, particularly from the Varandey platform and Kalinigrad terminal.

On Other routes, Black Sea total exports increased by 151 tb/d, mainly as exports through Novorossiyk port terminal (CPC) increased by 145 tb/d, while Supsa and Kulevi port terminal exports stayed flat from a month before. In the Mediterranean Sea, BTC supplies increased by 87 tb/d from the previous month, to average 680 tb/d.

FSU total product exports almost all declined, with the exception of gasoline, which rose by 115 tb/d. As a result, total FSU product exports averaged 2.6 mb/d in October.

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