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Stock Movements - December 2016

Source: OPEC_RP161211 12/14/2016, Location: Europe

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OECD commercial oil stocks fell in October to stand at 3,027 mb, around 302 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products both indicated a surplus, around 184 mb and 118 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 65.3 days, 6.3 days higher than the latest five-year average.

Preliminary data for November shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US rose by 8.8 mb, to settle at 1,343 mb, around 46 mb above the same period a year ago and 196 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose slightly by 0.7 mb, while products rose by 8.1 mb.

The latest information for China showed total commercial oil inventories fell by 3.4 mb in October to stand at 369.1 mb. Within components, crude fell by 4.4 mb, while product inventories rose by 1.0 mb.

OECD
Preliminary data for October shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 15.3 mb for the third consecutive month to stand at 3,027 mb, which is around 71 mb higher than at the same time one year ago and 302 mb above the latest five-year average. From January to October this year, OECD commercial stock builds have shown signs of slowing as they increased by only 41 mb compared with a build of 257 mb the previous year during the same period. The slowing build this year could be attributed to lower global supply growth compared with the considerable growth seen the previous year. Within components, crude rose by 19.5 mb, while product stocks fell by 34.8 mb.

OECD commercial crude stocks rose in October, ending the month at 1,513 mb, standing 32 mb above the same time one year earlier and around 184 mb higher than the latest five-year average. OECD America and OECD Asia Pacific experienced builds, while OECD Europe stocks remained almost unchanged.

In contrast, OECD product inventories fell sharply by 34.8 mb following a drop of 11.1 mb in September. At 1,514 mb, OECD product inventories are 14.7 mb above a year ago at the same time and 118 mb above the seasonal norm. Within regions, OECD North America and OECD Asia Pacific saw a drop, while OECD Europe experienced a build.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks were unchanged in October to stand at 65.3 days, which is 1.3 days above the previous year in the same period and 6.3 days higher than the latest five-year average. Within the regions, OECD Americas had 7.4 more days of forward cover than the historical average to stand at 64.7 days in October. OECD Asia Pacific stood 5.0 days above the seasonal average to finish the month of October at 53.8 days. At the same time, OECD Europe indicated a surplus of 5.0 days above the seasonal norm, averaging 73.6 days in October.

Commercial stocks in OECD Americas fell by 18.8 mb in October, following a drop of 14.8 mb in September, to settle at 1,592 mb, a surplus of 46 mb above a year ago and 207 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Within components, crude stocks rose by 15.9 mb, while products fell by 34.7 mb.

At the end of October, commercial crude oil stocks in OECD Americas rose, ending the month at 831 mb, which was 32 mb above the same time one year ago, and 142 mb above the latest five-year average. Higher crude imports were behind the build in crude oil stocks. The decline in US crude throughput in October also contributed to the build in OECD America crude inventories.

In contrast, product stocks in OECD Americas fell by 34.7 mb, ending October at 760 mb, but still indicating a surplus of 15 mb above the same time one year ago and 64 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Higher consumption, mainly distillate products, combined with lower refinery output, was behind the drop in OECD America product stocks.

OECD Europeís commercial stocks rose by 2.7 mb in October, ending the month at 984 mb, which is 13 mb higher than at the same time a year ago and 71 mb above the latest five-year average. Product stocks rose by 2.8 mb, while crude stocks remained almost unchanged.

OECD Europeís commercial crude stocks remained almost unchanged in October, ending the month at 417 mb, which is in line with the same period a year earlier and 23.4 mb higher than the latest five-year average. The decline in crude production from the North Sea offset a decrease in crude throughput.

OECD Europeís commercial product stocks rose by 2.8 mb to end October at 567 mb, which is 13 mb higher than a year ago at the same time and 48 mb higher than the seasonal norm. This build could be attributed to lower demand in the region combined with lower refinery output.

OECD Asia Pacific commercial oil stocks rose slightly by 0.8 mb in October to settle at 451 mb, which is 12 mb higher than a year ago and 24.8 mb above the five-year average. Within components, crude rose by 3.6 mb, while product stocks fell by 2.8 mb. In October, crude inventories ended the month at 265 mb, which is 5.4 mb below a year ago, yet 18.3 mb above the seasonal norm. OECD Asia Pacificís total product inventories ended October at 186 mb, standing 13 mb higher than the same time a year ago and 6.2 mb above the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for October shows total European stocks rose by 2.7 mb to stand at 1,150.6 mb, which is 22.7 mb, or 2.0%, above the same time a year ago and 79.2 mb, or 7.4%, higher than the latest five-year average. Crude stocks fell slightly by 0.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 2.8 mb.

European crude inventories fell slightly in October for the fifth consecutive month to stand at 483.3 mb, which is 2.9 mb, or 0.6%, lower than the same period a year ago, but they are still 17.2 mb, or 3.7%, higher than the seasonal norm. The slight decline could derive from lower crude production from the North Sea, as crude throughput dropped by around 200,000 b/d in September versus August.

In contrast, European product stocks rose by 2.8 mb, ending October at 667.3 mb, which is 25.5 mb, or 4.0%, above the same time a year ago, and 62.0 mb, or 10.2%, above the seasonal norm. Within products, the picture was mixed; gasoline and distillate stocks went up, while residual fuel stocks witnessed draws. Naphtha remained unchanged.

Gasoline stocks rose by 1.7 mb in October to stand at 119.1 mb, which is 9.3 mb, or 8.5%, above a year earlier, and 11.6 mb, or 10.8%, higher than the seasonal norm. The build could have been driven by lower exports combined with higher output. Lower demand may also have contributed to the build in gasoline stocks.

Distillate stocks also rose by 2.5 mb in October, reversing Septemberís stock-draw. At 449.3 mb, distillate inventories are 15.8 mb, or 3.6%, higher than at the same time one year ago and 60.2 mb, or 15.5%, above the latest five-year average. The build could be attributed to higher output combined with lower demand. Distillate stocks remained at historically high levels; this will provide little support to global distillate markets.

In contrast, residual fuel oil stocks fell by 1.4 mb in October to stand at 74.7 mb, which is 1.6 mb, or 2.1%, less than the same month a year ago and 7.1 mb, or 8.7%, lower than the latest five-year average. The decline was a result of higher demand in the region, mainly from bunker consumption.

US
Preliminary data for November shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US rose by 8.8 mb, following a drop of 18.8 mb in October, to settle at 1,342.6 mb. This is around 45.6 mb, or 3.5%, above the same period a year ago and 196 mb, or 17%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose slightly by 0.7 mb, while products rose by 8.1 mb.

US commercial crude stocks rose slightly in November, after increasing by nearly 16 mb in October. At 485.6 mb, US crude oil stocks were 29.8 mb or 6.5 %, above the same time one year ago and 121 mb, or 33.2%, above the latest five-year average. The build in US commercial crude stocks could be attributed to higher imports. Less crude oil moving into refineries could also have contributed to the build. Stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma rose by more than 7 mb, ending October at 65.3 mb.

Total product stocks rose by 8.1 mb in November, ending the month at 856.9 mb, which was around 16 mb, or 1.9%, above the level seen the same time a year ago, and 75.0 mb, or 9.5%, above the seasonal norm. All major products experienced a build.

Gasoline stocks rose by 8.6 mb in November to settle at 229.5 mb, which is 6.6 mb, or 3.0%, above the same period a year ago and 10.7 mb, or 4.9%, above the latest five-year average. The build came mainly from lower consumption, which averaged 9.0 mb/d, 30,000 b/d lower than in the previous month. Higher gasoline output limited a further build in gasoline stocks.

Distillate stocks also rose by 8.1 mb, revising a 11.8 mb drop in October. At 156.7 mb, they indicated a slight deficit with the same period a year ago, but are 23.4 mb, or 17.6%, above the latest five-year average. The build in middle distillate stocks came mainly on higher output, which increased by nearly 450,000 b/d, to average around 5.1 mb/d. Lower demand also contributed to a build in middle distillate stocks.

Jet fuel stocks rose by 1.9 mb, ending November at 43.8 mb, which is 5.7 mb, or 15%, above the same period a year ago, and 5.0 mb, or 12.9%, higher than the latest five-year average. Residual fuel oil inventories rose by 1.3 mb to 40.4 mb in November, which is 3.2 mb, or 7.2%, lower than the same period a year ago, but 2.0 mb, or 5.3%, above the seasonal norm.

Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks rose by 0.8 mb in October for the second consecutive month to stand at 157.9 mb, which is 11.1 mb, or 6.5%, less than the same time a year ago and 16.0 mb, or 9.2%, below the five-year average. Within components, crude rose by 3.6 mb, while product stocks went down by 2.8 mb.

Japanese commercial crude oil stocks rose in October, ending the month at 92.4 mb, which is 7.0 mb, or 7.1%, below the same period a year ago, and 7.3 mb, or 7.3%, below the seasonal norm. The build was driven by lower crude throughput, which decreased by around 290,000 b/d or 6.3%, to average 2.9 mb/d. Lower crude imports limited a further build in crude inventories. Indeed, crude inventories fell in October by 182,000 b/d to stand at 3.05 mb/d.

In contrast, Japanís total product inventories fell by 2.8 mb in October, reversing the build of the last three months. At 65.5 mb, total product inventories stood at 4.0 mb, or 5.8%, lower than the previous year in the same month and 8.7 mb, or 11.7%, less than the seasonal norm. This drop came on the back of higher domestic product sales, which increased by 65,000 b/d for the previous month to average 2.9 mb/d. However, year-on-year, Japanís total oil sales hit a 34-year low for the month of October due to slowing demand for fuel oil, kerosene and gasoil. All products dropped, with the bulk of the stock-draw coming from distillates.

Distillate stocks fell by 1.4 mb in October to stand at 32.8 mb. At this level, they stood at 0.6 mb, or 1.8%, lower than the same period a year ago and 2.7 mb, or 7.7%, below the seasonal average. Within distillate components, jet fuel, kerosene and gasoil fell by 5.7%, 3.2% and 4.3%, respectively. The fall in jet fuel came mainly from lower output, while the drop in kerosene and gasoil came on the back of higher domestic demand.

Gasoline inventories fell by 0.5 mb, ending October at 9.7 mb, 0.6 mb, or 5.6%, lower than a year ago at the same time and 2.2 mb, or 18.4%, lower than the seasonal norm. The fall in gasoline stocks could be driven by higher domestic sales, which increased by 2.0%. Naphtha inventories fell by 0.7 mb in October to stand at 9.8 mb. At this level, naphtha stocks are 0.7 mb, or 6.5%, lower than the previous year at the same time, and 1.2 mb or 10.7%, below the five-year average.

Total residual fuel oil stocks also fell by 0.2 mb in October to stand at 13.3 mb, which is 2.2 mb, or 14.0%, lower than a year ago and 2.6 mb, or 16.5%, below the latest five-year average. Within fuel oil components, fuel oil A rose by 6.7%, driven by higher output, while fuel oil B.C stocks fell by 9.3% on the back of lower domestic sales.

China
The latest information for China showed total commercial oil inventories fell by 3.4 mb in October to stand at 369.1 mb, which is 9.1 mb lower than the previous year at the same time. Within components, crude fell by 4.4 mb, while product inventories rose by 1.0 mb.

In October, commercial crude stocks fell to 230.1 mb, reversing the build of the previous two months. With this stock-draw, they were 16.9 mb below the previous year at the same time. The drop could be attributed to higher crude oil throughput, which expanded by 7.4% from the previous month. Lower crude oil imports also contributed to a drop in crude oil stocks.

In contrast, total product stocks in China rose by 1.0 mb in October for the third consecutive month to stand at 139 mb. At this level, total product stocks were 7.8 mb above the same time a year ago. Gasoline inventories went up, while diesel and kerosene experienced a fall.

Gasoline stocks rose in October to stand at 67.8 mb, which is 16.0 mb above the same time a year ago. The build in gasoline stocks was driven by higher output combined with lower demand, which was attributed to less travel due to cold weather.

In contrast, diesel and kerosene inventories fell by 1.5 mb and 1.0 mb to stand at 51.8 mb and 16.8 mb, respectively. This fall in diesel stocks came on the back of healthy consumption, driven by higher agricultural and industrial activities.

Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
At the end of October, product stocks in Singapore rose slightly by 0.2 mb to stand at 48.9 mb. At this level, they are 1.4 mb or 2.7% below the same period a year ago. Within products, the picture was mixed, with light distillate and middle distillate stocks rising, while fuel oil inventories fell.

Light and middle distillate stocks rose in October by 0.7 mb and 0.4 mb, respectively. At 12.7 mb, light distillates stood at 2.2 mb, higher than the previous year at the same time, while middle distillates ended October at 13.1 mb, which was 0.2 mb or 1.4% less than a year ago in the same period. The build in both products was driven by lower exports from the hub.

In contrast, residual fuel oil stocks fell by 0.8 mb in October, ending the month at 23.2 mb. At this level, they were 3.3 mb or 12.6% less than at the same time a year ago. The fall could be attributed to greater marine bunkering in the region.

Product stocks in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) fell by 4.1 mb to end October at 38.7 mb, which is 8.7 mb, or 18.3%, lower than at the same time a year ago. All products, with the exception of gasoline, witnessed a stock-draw.

Gasoline inventories rose by 0.1 mb, ending October at 6.4 mb, which is 0.6 mb, or around 9%, lower than the same month of the previous year. Lower demand in the region was behind this build.

In contrast, gasoil fell by 1.1 mb in October to stand at 21.8 mb. At this level, it stood at 4.1 mb, or 15.7%, below a year ago at the same time. Fuel oil stocks also fell by 1.1 mb in October to stand at 3.9 mb, which is 2.9 mb, or nearly 43%, lower than at the same period a year ago. This fall was mainly driven by lower demand from marine bunkers in the region.

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