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World Oil Supply - March 2017

Source: OPEC_RP170307 3/14/2017, Location: Europe

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Preliminary data indicates that the world’s oil supply decreased in February by 0.21 mb/d m-o-m to average 95.88 mb/d, yet surprisingly remained unchanged, y-o-y.

Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated to have averaged 57.34 mb/d in 2016, a contraction of 0.66 mb/d y-o-y. There were no changes m-o-m despite having an increase of 148 tb/d in absolute supply, where higher growth in 4Q16 in Canada and Other OECD Europe was completely offset by downward revisions in the US, Norway, Australia, Brunei and Azerbaijan.

In 2017, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.40 mb/d, following an upward revision of 0.16 mb/d, to average 57.74 mb/d. This forecast is driven mainly by higher expectations for Canadian oil sands output and higher growth in the US. Moreover, US oil supply growth for 2017 was revised up by 0.10 mb/d to 0.34 mb/d, following higher rig counts and stronger cash flows.

OPEC NGLs production and non-conventional liquids were revised down by 10 tb/d to average 6.09 mb/d in 2016, an increase of 0.14 mb/d. In 2017, they are forecast to grow by 0.13 mb/d to average 6.21 mb/d, following a downward revision of 30 tb/d. In February 2016, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 140 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 31.96 mb/d.

Non-OPEC supply for 2016 and 2017
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is estimated to have averaged 57.34 mb/d in 2016, a decline of 0.66 mb/d from 2015. There was no change in 2016 growth from the previous assessment. Within the quarters, non-OPEC oil supply encountered upward revisions, mainly in 4Q16 with 208 tb/d. Moreover, the production data of Other OECD Europe and Thailand was also updated since 2014. According to preliminary and estimated data, total non-OPEC supply in 4Q16 increased by 0.32 mb/d to average 58.01 mb/d over the same period a year earlier. During 1H16 and 2H16, non-OPEC supply decreased by 0.62 and 0.70 mb/d, respectively, compared with the same period in the previous year.

Non-OPEC supply in 2016 saw a strong decline in OECD Americas, China and Latin America, while growth was seen in FSU, driven by robust output of 0.25 mb/d from Russia. OECD Americas’ oil supply declined by 0.47 mb/d in 2016 compared with growth of 0.93 mb/d in 2015. This drop relates mostly to declines in US onshore crude oil output rather than annual declines in Mexico and Canadian oil sands outages. Chinese crude oil production was weaker-than-expected according to various sources due to declines in mature onshore fields, as well as low investment. In Latin America, total oil supply was disappointing following a remarkable y-o-y drop in Brazilian growth, as well as a higher annual declines in Colombia.

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is now estimated to have averaged 57.34 mb/d. This follows steeper-thanexpected production declines in US shale plays, in mature fields in China and Colombia, as well as Canadian oil outages due to wildfires. Moreover, the decline of global upstream spending by 23% in 2016 had a strong impact on oil production. But the improvement in oil prices in 2H16 and more optimistic industry sentiment since 4Q16 have contributed to renewed US tight oil activity. According to investment guidance by major oil companies, the y-o-y changes in global investment indicate a contraction of 32% in 2016 and a decline of 47% in the shale industry, while the drops by non-majors were at 27%. The total y-o-y changes showed a contraction of 33% in 2016.

For 2017, non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.40 mb/d to average 57.74 mb/d, up by 0.16 mb/d from the February MOMR. This was due to higher expectations for Canada, US and Russia. It seems that the oil supply recovery is gathering momentum in the world oil market, stimulated by gradually rising prices as well as improvements in drilling efficiency and well productivity in North America. US oil production in 2017 has been revised up by 0.10 mb/d to now show growth of 0.34 mb/d, following higher rig counts and increased cash flows announced by different US oil companies. At the same time, the Canadian oil sands production rate in the last two months of 2016, which resulted in total oil production rising to a new record level of 5 mb/d, indicates an uptick in the oil sands industry. Therefore, Canada’s oil supply growth forecast for 2017 was revised up by 87 tb/d to now show growth of 0.26 mb/d.

Capital expenditure on the slated 2017 Final Investment Decision (FID) projects totals $65 billion, down marginally on the $69 billion committed to FIDs in 2016. According to new analysis done by Wood Mackenzie (WM), 22 projects will achieve FIDs this year – up from 14 projects in 2016 – the most since 2013. The challenges of high costs that many projects experience must be addressed in order to achieve acceptable hurdle rates. It is said that despite the uptick in numbers, investment in green field conventional projects has remained at a low level. A major concern is that those green field projects being developed will not sustain the supply. Oil and gas reserves total 19 billion boe in all projects’ FIDs in the three years of the downturn so far.

On a country-by-country basis, the main contributors to growth in 2017 are expected to be the US with 0.34 mb/d, Brazil and Canada with 0.26 mb/d each, Kazakhstan with 0.14 mb/d, Africa other with 0.04 mb/d and Congo with 0.04 mb/d.

China, Mexico, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Colombia, Oman and Norway are expected to show the strongest declines. The quarterly distribution for non-OPEC supply (Graph 5 – 1), indicates a regular seasonal pattern with the lowest production levels in 2Q17 and 3Q17 for maintenance, particularly in offshore areas. The 4Q17 is forecast to record the highest output, among the quarters at 58.34 mb/d, even higher than the annual average supply of 57.74 mb/d for 2017.

Regarding regional non-OPEC supply changes, Graph 5 - 2 shows that the main rebound in annual growth will be in OECD Americas and, to some extent, DCs, particularly Latin America.

Regarding the expected oil production changes in non-OPEC countries in 2017 compared to 2016, given higher price expectations for this year, the OECD is projected to see a growth of 0.39 mb/d and DCs are forecast to see a growth of 0.12 mb/d. In contrast, China is expected to see a contraction of 0.18 mb/d. Oil production in FSU is projected to see a growth of around 50 tb/d.

OECD liquids production in 2016 is estimated to have contracted by 0.47 mb/d to average 24.83 mb/d, revised up by 15 tb/d from February’s MOMR. In 2017, OECD supply is forecast to average 25.22 mb/d, revised up by 198 tb/d, mostly due to supply from the US and Canada, which represents a growth of 0.39 mb/d.

OECD Americas
OECD Americas’ oil supply in 2016 is estimated to have averaged 20.60 mb/d, a decline of 0.47 mb/d y-o-y and an upward revision of 26 tb/d m-o-m. Supply in the US and Mexico is expected to have declined in 2016, while it grew in Canada.

In 2017, supply in OECD Americas is expected to grow by 0.43 mb/d to average 21.03 mb/d, following an upward revision of 0.18 mb/d, mostly due to higher-than-expected US onshore crude output. Canada is also expected to see robust growth of 0.26 mb/d, following unexpected increases in output during November and December 2016, with a new record of more than 5 mb/d reached in November. A decline of 0.17 mb/d is anticipated in Mexico.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil production averaged 8.78 mb/d in December, representing a decline of 91 tb/d from November. Some 89 tb/d is attributed to a fall in North Dakota state oil output, which declined, following freezing temperatures, to average 0.94 mb/d. Crude oil production in Texas also decreased by a slight 17 tb/d to average 3.15 mb/d, but oil production in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and Alaska increased by 47 tb/d and 6 tb/d m-o-m to average 1.73 mb/d and 0.52 mb/d, respectively. Upside potential exist for US tight oil production from the most prolific shale regions, particularly in the Permian Basin.

US crude oil output (excluding offshore regions and Alaska) declined from a peak of 7.63 mb/d in March 2015 to the lowest rate of 6.52 mb/d in December 2016. Therefore, the onshore (Lower-48 States) crude oil output in 3Q16 and 4Q16 was more or less steady at 6.63 mb/d and 6.62 mb/d, respectively, despite an increase of 209 oil rigs since June. Moreover, the EIA’s official estimates show that US tight oil production declined by 0.52 mb/d from a peak of 4.65 mb/d in March 2015 to average 4.13 mb/d in December 2016. Nevertheless, US total liquid supply in 4Q16, despite decreasing in December by 0.28 mb/d m-o-m, grew by 0.14 mb/d to average 13.55 mb/d q-o-q. US total liquids supply, excluding processing gains, shows a contraction of 0.43 mb/d in 2016, revised down by 33 tb/d compared to the last MOMR following the weak output performance in December. On an annual average supply of 13.61 mb/d is estimated for 2016.

For 2017, the weekly US crude output shows that it increased to 9 mb/d in February, higher by 0.43 mb/d than September 2016, after the addition of 293 rigs. Hence, with drilling activity picking up and cash flow increasing in the tight oil industry, US tight crude output is likely to increase by 0.18 mb/d to average 4.44 mb/d in 2017. Production from tight oil wells, after initial high rates, is not declining as quickly as it did when the US shale boom began in 2007. Based on the NGLs output trend in 2016, unconventional NGLs – produced from tight formations – are expected to grow by 0.27 mb/d in 2017. US liquids supply in 2017, excluding processing gains, is forecast to grow by 0.34 mb/d y-o-y, revised up by 0.10 mb/d, to average 13.95 mb/d. The highest level of production is expected to be in 4Q17 at 14.31 mb/d.

With regard to production in the basins, Marcellus will contribute most to a higher growth rate in 2017, for gas and NGLs, according to Rystad Energy. The increase is supported by over 2,000 drilled, but not yet producing Marcellus wells. Marcellus has a large backlog of unconnected wells due to historically low takeaway capacity and regional gas prices. In terms of oil production, the two Permian plays could contribute most to additional output. The Permian plays are attractive due to their multi-stacked potential, and they witnessed the most transactions in 2016. Niobrara is the third largest contributor to increased oil production.

US oil rig count
According to Baker Hughes’ latest weekly report for 3 March 2017, the US drilling rig count rose by 352 units to 756 rigs, compared to 404 rigs – bottom of the rig count – on 27 May 2016. The US rig count was higher by 267 rigs y-o-y, an increase of 55%. The number of active drilling rigs in the US increased for the seventh consecutive week. Total oil rigs increased by 7 units during the week to 609 rigs, up 303 units since 27 May 2016. Natural gas-directed units decreased by 5 units to 146 rigs, up 65 units since the bottom reached on 26 August 2016. Onshore rigs climbed by 1 unit to 738 rigs, with horizontal up 9 units to 633 rigs and directional down 8 units to 61 rigs. The horizontal count has expanded by 319 rigs since 27 May. US offshore drilling rigs were up by 1 unit to 18 rigs, while it was 24 units a year ago.

In regards to the basins, the number of oil rigs in Eagle Ford increased by 38 rigs from the beginning of the previous June to 64 rigs so far. In the Permian Basin, the number of oil rigs increased from the bottom at the beginning of May 2016, by 176 units, to 308 rigs, while rig counts in the Williston Basin (Bakken shale in North Dakota) increased by 16 units to 38 rigs. Finally rig counts, in the DJ-Niobrara Basin increased by only 8 units to 20 rigs in the beginning of March 2017.

The majority of US onshore growth in 2017 is likely to be driven by development drilling programmes in the Delaware (Permian basin) and Eagle Ford regions. Most operators in the tight oil industry will continue to focus on long laterals and pad drilling, enhanced completions with higher proppant loadings and tighter stage and cluster spacing, as well as integrated facility design. The numbers of active gas rigs in the beginning of March in the main shale gas plays were 41 units in Marcellus, 34 units in Haynesville and 20 rigs in Utica.

Canada’s oil supply growth in 2016 has been revised up by 60 tb/d to average 90 tb/d y-o-y, following the upward revision by 237 tb/d in 4Q16 due to higher-than-expected output in the months of November and December. Hence, it is estimated that the Canadian annual oil supply was at 4.51 mb/d in 2016, with November production seeing a peak above 5mb/d. The liquids output breakdown shows that conventional crude oil output in November and December was 1.21 mb/d and 1.25 mb/d, higher by 50 tb/d on average than October. Oil sands output in these two months was 2.87 mb/d and 2.72 mb/d, respectively, higher by 130 tb/d than October. The lower output in December was due to lower Syncrude production from Suncor’s Mildred Lake upgrader. Nevertheless, one of the reasons for higher oil sands production in Canada was due to a 10 tb/d increase of Syncrude from Phase 2b in the Horizon expansion project. Production of NGLs also increase by an average of 110 tb/d compared to October, reaching 1 mb/d. Canada’s passing the 5 mb/d mark in November 2016 highlight the fact that long and costly projects, which have already been sanctioned, such as oil sands and the upgraded Syncrude production are not subject to changes due to short term price fluctuations. Following this surge in oil production, the forecast for Canada’s oil supply growth in 2017 was revised up by 90 tb/d, at 0.26 mb/d, to 4.78 mb/d on an average yearly basis. Canada, after implementation of six projects with a total peak capacity of around 170 tb/d in 2016, is now planning to start up another five projects – Phase 1 of Mackay River, Phase 3 of Horizon, Phase 1 of Fort Hills by Suncor, the Hebron offshore project by ExxonMobil and, finally, the Hangingstone expansion project – with a total of more than 450 tb/d of peak capacity.

Canada’s overall rig count for the week ending 3 March 2017 saw five less units w-o-w to reach a total of 335 units. Only one of these is offshore. Y-o-y, the rig count in Canada showed an increase of 206 rigs. After decreasing to a minimum of 26 rigs during the wildfires in Fort McMurray last May, the number of active rigs in Alberta – the main state for oil sands production – reached an average of 227 rigs, a decline of 7 rigs w-o-w. The other main producing provinces are Saskatchewan and British Colombia, registering 65 rigs (last year’s rig count in late March was zero) and 32 rigs on 3 March, respectively.

Mexican liquids production in 2016 is expected to decline by 0.13 mb/d to average 2.46 mb/d, unchanged from the previous MOMR. Liquids output in January declined by 10 tb/d to average 2.33 mb/d m-o-m, and the breakdown shows that crude oil declined by 15 tb/d m-o-m to average 2.02 mb/d, for decline of 0.24 mb/d y-o-y (more than 10%). The annual decline rate in 2016 is estimated at 5%, while the annual decline rate for Mexican crude oil production in 2015 was 6.7%. According to the average annual decline rate trend for crude oil and NGLs, oil production in Mexico will fall by 0.17 mb/d to average 2.29 mb/d in 2017.

OECD Europe
Total OECD Europe’s oil supply is estimated to grow by 30 tb/d to average 3.80 mb/d in 2016, unchanged from the February MOMR. The 2017 forecast was revised up by 19 tb/d following an historical upward revision in Other OECD Europe, which is expected to see a contraction of 50 tb/d to average 3.76 mb/d in 2017.

Norway’s oil supply is estimated to have increased by 0.05 mb/d over the previous year to average 1.99 mb/d in 2016, unchanged from the previous MOMR. The production figure for 4Q16 has been revised down by 8 tb/d to average 2.11 mb/d this month. The preliminary average daily production in January 2017 was 2.02 mb/d, lower by 50 tb/d than December 2016. Crude oil output in January stood at 1.61 mb/d representing a decline of 70tb/d, m-o-m, but broadly flat with y-o-y levels. NGLs and condensates contributed 0.41mb/d in January. Crude oil output in January was affected by lower production from the Goliat field due to an unexpected technical bottleneck, which is likely to be continued in February. Regarding the oil supply forecast in 2017, due to the limited number of new projects starting up in the new year, a contraction of 30 tb/d is anticipated, for an average of 1.96 mb/d. According to the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD), due to lower investment spending in 2016 compared with a year ago, a mere 36 exploration wells were drilled in 2016 compared with 56 in 2015. An 11% decline in capital spending is forecast in 2017.

UK’s oil production is estimated to grow by 60 tb/d to average 1.02 mb/d in 2016, while a contraction of 20 tb/d is expected for 2017 to average 1.0 mb/d. Oil production in January was steady at 1.07 mb/d compared to December 2016. In order to offset the rising annual decline in UK’s mature fields, new projects are planned for startup in 2017 with a total peak capacity of approximately 0.3 mb/d. According to new project planning, the development of the Stella field – the first project started up in 2017, which is part of the Greater Stella Area (GSA) ? involves the drilling of subsea wells tied back to the “FPF-1” floating production unit, with the onward export of oil and gas, and already produced its first oil in February. The Scolty/Crathes and the Greater Catcher fields are also expected to come online to produce sour crude, along with some other small projects such as Kraken, Quad 204 and the redevelopment of Monarb, which will lead to an increase of 22 tb/d of NGLs.

Developing Countries
Total oil production of developing countries (DCs) is estimated to decline by 80 tb/d y-o-y to average 12.23 mb/d in 2016, revised down by 20 tb/d compared with the previous assessment. The reason for this revision was due to upward revisions in Thailand’s oil production since 2014, which led to an upward revision by 101 tb/d in the supply base. Brazil also experienced an upward revision in 2015 by changing the base by 15 tb/d. Therefore, the 2016 DC’s base was up by 109 tb/d to average 12.23 mb/d from 12.13 mb/d in the last assessment, while supply growth remained unchanged at 0.08 mb/d in 2016.

In 2017, DC’s supply is forecast to grow by 0.12 mb/d to average 12.36 mb/d, showing a downward revision in annual growth by 39 tb/d compared to the last MOMR. The key region for these changes is Africa (-20 tb/d), Other Asia (-16 tb/d) and the Middle East (-9 tb/d), while Latin America was revised up by 6 tb/d. Growth 0.18 mb/d is expected in Latin America ? mainly from Brazil – to average 5.30 mb/d and, to a lesser degree, Africa, increasing by 50 tb/d – mainly from Congo and Ghana – to stand at 2.16 mb/d. Other Asia’s oil supply will see a decline of 50 tb/d to average 3.67 mb/d due to the return of Indonesia to the non-OPEC group of producers. A decline of 60 tb/d is also expected for the Middle East to stand at 1.23 mb/d.

Latin America
Oil supply from Latin America is predicted to increase by 0.18 mb/d to average 5.30 mb/d in 2017, despite declining in 2016 by 90 tb/d. Oil production in Brazil is expected to increase by 0.26 mb/d, while other countries in the region will see declines.

Brazil’s liquids supply is estimated to average 3.14 mb/d in 2016, an increase of 0.06 mb/d over the previous year. Preliminary crude oil production shows a decrease of 75 tb/d m-o-m in January to average 2.65 mb/d, mainly due to the scheduled stoppage of the P-40 platform at the Marlim Sul field, and to maintenance work on a production well at Parque das Baleias- both fields are in the Campos basin.

Petrobras’s pre-salt oil reached a new high of 1.34 mb/d on 4 January, falling back later to average 1.28 mb/d, while NGL output was steady at 118 tb/d. Biofuels increased by 24 tb/d to 0.55 mb/d. Total Brazilian liquids supply in January declined by 50 tb/d m-o-m to average 3.33 mb/d. Growth of 0.26 mb/d is forecast in Brazil for the year of 2017 to reach an average of 3.40 mb/d. Higher output through new wells in Cidade de Caraguatatuba (over the Lapa field); Cidade de Saquarema, Cidade de Mangaratiba, Cidade de Itagua? (over the Lula field); Cidade de S?o Paulo (over the Sapinho field) and also at the P-58 platform serving Parque das Baleias, is expected to be achieved through connection to different FPSOs in the Santos basin during the coming months of 2017.

In 2017, oil production will grow in Chad, Congo and Ghana, while production in South Africa and the Sudans will be stagnant. Oil production in Egypt and Equatorial Guinea will decline in 2017 by 20 tb/d and 10 tb/d, respectively. Africa’s oil supply is forecast to grow by 50 tb/d to average 2.16 mb/d in 2017 following a decline of 20 tb/d last year.

FSU, other regions
FSU’s oil supply is estimated to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2016 to average 13.88 mb/d, remaining unchanged from the February report. In 2016, oil production in Russia increased, while declining in other countries of the region. The oil production forecast for 2017 was revised up this month by 10 tb/d to now show growth of 0.05 mb/d for a total of 13.93 mb/d. An upward revision was seen in Russia’s production growth by 38 tb/d. Moreover, Azerbaijan’s production supply in 2017 was revised down by 28 tb/d for a contraction of 0.07 mb/d.

Oil production in Russia was revised up in 4Q16 by 26 tb/d to average 11.32 mb/d. Output in 4Q16 was 0.3 mb/d higher q-o-q and 0.4 mb/d higher than 4Q15. For instance, liquids production by Rosneft, which newly acquired the state’s 50.08% share in Bashneft, hit 4.58 mb/d in 4Q16, up by 12.2% compared to 3Q16. Russian oil output is estimated to increase by 0.25 mb/d – for a upward revision of 7 tb/d – to average 11.10 mb/d in 2016. Russia’s total liquids output in February 2017 was 11.21 mb/d.

Russia’s oil supply for 2017 has been revised up by 45 tb/d following the adjustment of 181 tb/d in 1Q17, and is seen to contract by 22 tb/d to an average yearly supply of 11.08 mb/d. In regards to oil production in 2017, Rosneft has been increasing crude oil production at its Yurubcheno-Tokhomskoye field in East Siberia, where it plans to start commercial production later this year. The Yurubcheno-Tokhomskoye (Y-T) field is estimated to have 2.5 billion barrels of oil reserves. The company aims to produce around 100 tb/d at the Y-T oil field from 2019 during its first development phase. Last year, oil production increased 2,015 to 2,079 b/d. Production in January was around 7 tb/d, higher by around 65% from January 2016.

Kazakhstan’s crude oil output in February and January was stagnant at 1.68 mb/d. The Kashagan field, which came onstream in late September and is now ramping up to its initial target of 160 tb/d before gas injection, is due to reach a plateau of 370 tb/d within two years, once a gas reinjection programme starts. However, the oil ministry said it is not expected to reach the level of more than 180 tb/d by the end of 2017.

Hence, the prediction for growth of 140 tb/d for this year has not been changed from the last MOMR. Oil supply in Kazakhstan in 2016 declined by 40 tb/d to average 1.56 mb/d. Azerbaijan’s oil supply was reduced by 17.5 tb/d in February to average 0.78 mb/d, according to the Energy Ministry. Oil production in January was also adjusted to 0.79 mb/d following the production declines in the first two months of 1Q17. The annual oil supply in Azerbaijan is expected to contract by 70 tb/d to average 0.78 mb/d in 2017 following a minor decline of 10 tb/d in 2016.

China’s supply in 2016 remained unchanged in this month’s short-term supply analysis and is estimated to contract by 0.31 mb/d to average 4.08 mb/d.

In 2017, Chinese oil production is forecast to see another contraction but at a slower pace, by 0.18 mb/d, over the previous year to average 3.90 mb/d. Chinese crude oil output, following an increase in December, decreased by 60 tb/d in January to average 3.99 mb/d.

OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are estimated to average 6.09 mb/d in 2016, revised down by 10 tb/d, due to lower condensate output in 4Q16 in Nigeria, representing growth of 0.14 mb/d over the previous year.

In 2017, OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production is projected to average 6.21 mb/d, revised down by 20 tb/d because of lower GTL output expected in 1Q17 and 2Q17 due to maintenance at the Pearl project in Qatar, a decrease of 0.13 mb/d from the previous year.

OPEC crude oil production
According to secondary sources, OPEC crude oil production in February decreased by 0.14 mb/d from the previous month to average 31.96 mb/d. Crude oil output increased the most in Nigeria, while production in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and Angola showed the largest declines.

World oil supply
Preliminary data indicates that global oil supply decreased by 0.21 mb/d in February to average 95.88 mb/d, yet surprisingly unchanged, y-o-y. A decrease in both non-OPEC supply, including OPEC NGLs, of 63.92 mb/d and in OPEC crude production of 0.14 mb/d reduced overall global oil output in February. The share of OPEC crude oil in total global production stood at 33.3% in February, a decrease of 0.1% from the month before. Estimates are based on preliminary data for non-OPEC supply, direct communication for OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids, and secondary sources for OPEC crude oil production.

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