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Stock Movements - March 2017

Source: OPEC_RP170311 3/14/2017, Location: Europe

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OECD commercial oil stocks rose in January to stand at 3,006 mb, 278 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products indicate a surplus of 209 mb and 69 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 63.8 days, 4.9 days higher than the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for February shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US rose by 1.8 mb, to stand at 1,349.2 mb. At this level, they are 210 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average. Within components, crude rose by 25.4 mb, while product fell by 23.7 mb. The latest information for China shows that total commercial oil inventories rose by 15.2 mb in January to stand at 378.0 mb. Within the components, crude and product stocks rose by 3.6 mb and 11.6 mb, respectively.

OECD
Preliminary data for January shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 20.1 mb, reversing the trend for the fifth consecutive month, to stand at 3,006 mb, around 15.0 mb lower than the same time one year ago and 278 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude rose by 22.1 mb, while products fell by 2.0 mb. OECD Americas and OECD Europe rose by 11.9 mb and 10.5 mb, respectively, while OECD Asia Pacific fell by 2.3 mb.

OECD commercial crude stocks fell in January, reversing the build of the last two months, to stand at 1,510 mb, 24.4 mb above the same time a year ago and around 209 mb higher than the latest five-year average. OECD Americas and OECD Europe experienced stock builds, while OECD Asia Pacific stocks witnessed a stock draw.

In contrast, OECD product inventories fell by 2.0 mb in January to stand at 1,496 mb, 40 mb below the same time a year ago and 69 mb above the seasonal norm. Within the regions, OECD Americas and OECD Asia Pacific experienced stock builds, while OECD Europe stocks witnessed stock draws.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.3 mb in January to stand at 63.8 days, which is 0.5 days less than the same period a year ago and 4.9 days higher than the latest fiveyear average. Within the regions, OECD Americas had 7.9 more days of forward cover than the historical average to stand at 65.6 days in January. OECD Asia Pacific stood 2.4 days above the seasonal average to finish the month of January at 49.7 days. At the same time, OECD Europe indicated a surplus of 0.7 days above the seasonal norm, averaging 69.0 days in January.

OECD Americas
Total commercial stocks in OECD Americas rose by 11.9 mb in January to stand at 1,625 mb, 42 mb above a year ago and 238 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Within the components, crude and product stocks rose by 10.4 mb and 1.5 mb, respectively.

At the end of January, commercial crude oil stocks in OECD Americas rose, ending the month at 843 mb, which is 39.7 mb above the same time a year ago and 209 mb above the latest five-year average. Lower US crude runs and higher US crude imports were behind the build.

Commercial product stocks in OECD Americas rose by 1.5 mb in January to stand at 782 mb, which is 2.4 mb above the same time a year ago and 72.4 mb higher than the seasonal norm.

OECD Europe
OECD Europe’s total commercial stocks rose by 10.5 mb in January, ending the month at 969 mb, which is 45 mb lower than the same time a year ago, but 32 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude rose by 15.0 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.6 mb.

OECD Europe’s commercial crude stocks rose in January ending the month at 416 mb, which is 8.4 mb lower than a year earlier, but 28.4 mb higher than the latest five-year average. The build in crude oil stocks could be attributed to higher domestic production in the North Sea combined with lower crude throughput in January.

In contrast, OECD Europe’s commercial product stocks fell by 4.6 mb to end January at 553 mb, which is 36.7 mb lower than the same time a year ago and 3.6 mb higher than the seasonal norm. This fall was mainly driven by lower refinery output in the region.

OECD Asia Pacific
OECD Asia Pacific total commercial oil stocks fell by 2.3 mb in January for the fourth consecutive month to stand at 413 mb, which is 12.4 mb lower than a year ago and 8.6 mb above the five-year average.

Within the components, commercial crude oil stocks fell by 3.4 mb in January, ended the month at 251 mb, which is 6.8 mb below a year ago, yet 15.5 mb above the seasonal norm.

While commercial total product inventories rose by 1.1 mb, ended January at 162 mb, standing 5.6 mb lower than the same time a year ago and 6.9 mb less than the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for January shows European total stocks rose by 21.5 mb to stand at 1,150 mb, which is 17.9 mb, or 1.5%, lower than the same time a year ago, but remained 52.6 mb, or 4.8%, higher than the latest five-year average. Crude and product stocks rose by 15.0 mb and 6.4 mb, respectively.

European crude inventories rose in January to stand at 481.7 mb, which is 8.0 mb, or 1.6%, lower than the same period a year ago, but 20.0 mb, or 4.3%, higher than the seasonal norm. The drop in crude throughput by around 120 tb/d and higher domestic production in January were behind the build.

European products stocks rose by 6.4 mb to end January at 668.3 mb, which is 9.9 mb, or 1.5%, lower than the same time a year ago, yet 32.5 mb, or 5.1%, above the seasonal norm. Within products, gasoline and distillate stocks rose, while residual fuel oil witnessed a draw.

Gasoline stocks rose by 4.1 mb in January to stand at 122.1 mb, which is 2.4 mb, or 1.9%, below a year earlier, but 4.6 mb, or 3.9%, higher than the seasonal norm. Distillate stocks rose by 5.5 mb in January to stand at 449.7 mb, which is 0.9 mb, or 0.2%, higher than the same time one year ago and 42.4 mb, or 10.4%, above the latest five-year average. The build in distillate and gasoline stocks could be attributed to lower domestic demand as output for both products went down.

In contrast, residual fuel oil stocks fell by 3.1 mb in January to stand at 72.7 mb, which is 6.5 mb, or 8.2%, less than the same month a year ago and 10.2 mb, or 12.3%, lower than the latest five-year average.

US
Preliminary data shows that following the build of 11.9 mb seen in January, US total commercial oil stocks rose by 1.8 mb, to stand at 1,349.2 mb in February, 31.0 mb, or 2.4%, above the same period a year ago and 226.7 mb, or 20.2%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude rose by 25.4 mb, while products fell by 23.7 mb.

US commercial crude stocks rose in February to stand at 520.2 mb, 31.8 mb, or 6.5%, above the same time last year and 134.4 mb, or 34.9%, above the latest five-year average. The build in US commercial crude stocks could be attributed to lower crude throughputs, which decreased by more than 800 tb/d to average 15.6 mb/d. Higher crude domestic production also supported the build; however, lower crude imports limited a further build in crude oil stocks.

In contrast, total product stocks fell by 23.7 mb in February to stand at 829.0 mb, 0.7 mb, or 0.1%, down from the level seen at the same time in 2016, but 92.2 mb, or 12.5%, above the seasonal norm. With the exception of jet fuel, all products experienced a stock-draw.

Gasoline stocks fell by 1.2 mb in February, reversing the sharp build of 19.4 mb seen in January. At 255.9 mb, gasoline stocks stood 0.3 mb, or 0.1%, higher than the same period a year ago and 19.1 mb, or 8.1%, above the latest five-year average. The drop came mainly as a result of higher consumption, which averaged 8.7 mb/d, higher than in the previous month.

Distillate stocks fell by 6.5 mb in February, ending the month at 164.2 mb, which indicated a surplus of 1.5 mb, or 0.9%, over the same period a year ago and 32.1 mb, or 24.3%, above the latest five-year average. The drop in middle distillate stocks also came as a result of higher consumption, which increased by nearly 280 tb/d to average around 4.0 mb/d.

Residual fuel stocks declined by 2.8 mb, ending February at 38.3 mb, 7.7 mb, or 16.8%, below the same period a year ago and 0.4 mb, or 1.1%, below the latest five-year average. In contrast, jet fuel oil inventories rose by 2.1 mb to 44.6 mb in February, 2.3 mb, or 5.5%, higher than the same time last year, and 4.2 mb, or 10.4%, above the seasonal norm.

Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks fell by 2.3 mb in January for the third consecutive month to stand at 145.3 mb, which is 11.7 mb, or 7.5%, less than the same time a year ago and 15.2 mb, or 9.5%, below the five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 3.4 mb, while product stocks rose by 1.1 mb.

Japanese commercial crude oil stocks fell in January to stand at 85.3 mb, which is 5.9 mb, or 6.4%, below the same period a year ago, and 7.3 mb, or 7.9%, below the seasonal norm. The build was driven by lower crude imports, which decreased by around 150 tb/d, or 4.2%, to average 3.46 mb/d.

In contrast, Japan’s total product inventories rose by 1.1 mb in January to stand at 59.9 mb, which is 5.9 mb, or 8.9%, lower than the same month last year and 7.9 mb, or 11.6%, less than the seasonal norm. This build came on the back of lower domestic product sales, which fell by nearly 230 tb/d to average 3.32 mb/d.

In contrast, distillate stocks fell by 0.7 mb in January to stand at 27.1 mb, which is 2.6 mb, or 8.7%, lower than the same period a year ago and 3.1 mb, or 10.3%, below the seasonal average. Within distillate components, jet fuel, kerosene and gasoil fell by 5.6 %, 3.1% and 16 %, respectively. The fall in jet fuel and gas oil stocks came mainly from lower output, which decreased by 7.5% and 5.0%, respectively. However, the drop in kerosene oil stocks could be attributed to higher domestic sales, which increased by 1.6%.

Total residual fuel oil stocks fell by 0.3 mb in January to stand at 13.0 mb, which is 1.0 mb, or 6.9%, lower than a year ago and 2.2 mb, or 14.3%, below the latest five-year average. Within fuel oil components, fuel oil A rose by 2.9%, while fuel oil B.C fell by 5.4%. The build in fuel oil A was driven by lower domestic sales, which fell by 7.2%, while the drop in fuel oil B.C was attributed to higher exports.

Gasoline stocks rose in January by 1.2 mb to stand at 10.9 mb in January, which is 0.4 mb, or 3.8%, less than the same time a year ago and 1.4 mb, or 11.0%, below the latest five-year average. The build was driven by lower domestic sales combined with lower imports.

China
The latest information for China showed total commercial oil inventories rose by 15.2 mb in January to stand at 378.0 mb, which is 2.8 mb lower than the previous year. Within the components, crude and product stocks rose by 3.6 mb and 11.6 mb, respectively.

In January, commercial crude stocks rose, reversing the fall of the last three months, to stand at 225.9 mb, which is 8.7 mb below the same time last year. This build could be attributed to lower crude runs due to the traditional Chinese New Year holiday.

Total product stocks in China also rose by 11.6 mb in January to stand at 152.1 mb, which is 5.8 mb above the same time a year ago. Diesel and kerosene inventories saw builds of 19.2 mb and 0.8 mb, respectively, while gasoline experienced a fall of 8.5 mb.

Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Singapore
At the end of January, product stocks in Singapore rose by 5.3 mb to stand at 43.7 mb, which is 1.7 mb, or 3.6%, below the same period a year ago. All product categories witnessed builds.

Light and middle distillate stocks rose in January by 1.4 mb and 2.8 mb, respectively. At 13.7 mb, light distillates stood at 0.1 mb, or 0.9%, above last year at the same time, while middle distillates ended January at 13.1 mb, which is 2.1 mb, or 18.6%, higher than a year ago at the same time. The build in both products was driven by higher exports to the Singapore hub.

Residual fuel oil stocks rose by 1.2 mb in January to end the month at 21.8 mb, which is 0.5 mb, or 2.1%, lower than the same time a year ago. The build could be attributed to lower marine bunker demand in the region.

Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Product stocks in ARA rose by 5.6 mb in January to stand at 45.5 mb, which is 5.5 mb, or 10.7%, lower than at the same time a year ago. Within products, gasoline, gasoil and jet oil saw builds, while naphtha and fuel oil experienced stock draws.

Gasoline inventories rose by 0.7 mb, ending January at 9.6 mb, which is 0.4 mb, or around 4.1%, lower than the same month of the previous year. This build could be attributed to lower demand in the region. Gasoil rose by 5.0 mb in January to stand at 24.4 mb, which is 1.8 mb, or 7.0%, below a year ago at the same time. In contrast, fuel oil stocks fell by 0.1 mb in January to stand at 4.6 mb, which is 2.8 mb, or nearly 38%, lower than at the same time a year ago. This drop was mainly driven by lower imports to the ARA hub.

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