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Stock Movements - May 2017

Source: OPEC_RP170511 5/11/2017, Location: Europe

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OECD commercial oil stocks fell in March to stand at 3,013 mb, which is around 276 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products indicated a surplus of around 187 mb and 89 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 64.8 days in March, 4.8 days higher than the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April shows that US total commercial oil stocks rose slightly in April to stand at 1,339 mb, indicating a surplus of 187 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 7.8 mb, while products rose by 9.3 mb, m-o-m. The latest information for China shows that total commercial oil inventories fell in March to 390.9 mb, which is 17.8 mb lower than the previous year. Within the components, crude and product stocks fell by 4.9 mb and 0.4 mb, respectively.

OECD
Preliminary data for March shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 36.0 mb for the second consecutive month to stand at 3,013 mb, which is around 2.0 mb lower than the same time one year ago, but 276 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude rose by 7.4 mb, while products fell by 43.4 mb. All regions witnessed a stock draw.

OECD commercial crude stocks rose by 7.4 mb in March for the second consecutive month to stand at 1,537 mb, which is 35 mb above the same time a year ago and around 187 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average. While OECD Asia Pacific stocks witnessed a stock draw, OECD Americas experienced a stock build in commercial crude stocks. OECD Europe remained unchanged.

By contrast, OECD product inventories fell by 43.4 mb in March to stand at 1,475 mb, which is 36 mb below the same time a year ago, but 89 mb above the seasonal norm. All regions witnessed product stock draws.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 0.7 mb in March to stand at 64.8 days, which is 0.3 days less than the same period in 2016, and 4.8 days higher than the latest five-year average. Within the regions, OECD Americas had 6.6 more days of forward cover than the historical average to stand at 64.4 days in March. OECD Asia Pacific stood 0.2 days below the seasonal average to finish the month at 52.6 days, while OECD Europe indicated a surplus of 4.0 days above the seasonal norm, averaging 72.4 days in March.

OECD Americas
Total commercial stocks in OECD Americas fell by 17.0 mb in March to stand at 1,597 mb, which is 8.0 mb above a year ago and 205 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Within the components, crude rose by 12.0 mb, while product stocks fell by 29.0 mb, m-o-m.

At the end of March, commercial crude oil stocks in OECD Americas rose, ending the month at 870 mb, which is 39 mb above the same time one year ago and 164 mb above the latest five-year average. The build could be attributed to higher US crude imports combined with higher domestic production. However, higher US crude throughput limited further builds.

By contrast, commercial product stocks in OECD Americas fell by 29 mb in March, the second consecutive monthly drop, to stand at 727 mb, which is 31 mb less than the same time one year ago but 41 mb higher than the seasonal norm. This drop was mainly driven by higher US consumption of the major products.

OECD Europe
OECD Europeís total commercial stocks fell by 10.4 mb in March, ending the month at 1,012 mb, which is 8.5 mb lower than the same time a year ago, but 74 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude remained unchanged, while product stocks fell by 10.4 mb.

OECD Europeís commercial crude stocks remained unchanged at 424 mb, which is 7.7 mb higher than a year earlier and 23.8 mb higher than the latest five-year average. The increase in production in the North Sea offset the drop in OECD Europe crude runs in March leading to stable crude stocks in March vs. February.

OECD Europeís commercial product stocks fell by 10.4 mb to end March at 589 mb, which is 0.8 mb higher than the same time a year ago and 50 mb higher than the seasonal norm.

OECD Asia Pacific
OECD Asia Pacificís total oil commercial stocks fell by 8.6 mb in March to stand at 403 mb, which is 18.1 mb lower than a year ago and 1.9 mb lower than the five-year average.

Within the components, crude and products fell in March by 4.6 mb and 4.0 mb from February, respectively. Crude inventories ended the month of March at 244 mb, which is 11.6 mb below a year ago and 0.6 mb less than the seasonal norm.

OECD Asia Pacificís total product inventories ended March at 160 mb, standing 6.5 mb lower than the same time a year ago and 1.4 mb lower than the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for March shows that total European stocks rose slightly by 0.6 mb following a build of 20.0 mb in February. At 1,159.2 mb, European stocks were 5.1 mb, or 0.4%, lower than the same time a year ago, but remained 58.3 mb, or 5.3%, higher than the latest five-year average. Crude stocks remained unchanged, while total product stocks rose by 0.6 mb, m-o-m.

European crude inventories remained unchanged in March to stand at 486.4 mb, which is 0.4 mb, or 0.1%, higher than the same period a year ago. Comparing to the seasonal average, they were 13.7 mb, or 2.9%, higher. The decline of crude throughput offset the increase in North Sea production, leading to almost a flat level in European inventories. Preliminary data indicates that European refiners were running at around 10.3 mb/d in March, about 20 tb/d lower than the same period one year ago.

By contrast, European product stocks rose by 0.6 mb, ending March at 673 mb, which is 5.5 mb, or 0.8%, lower than the same time a year ago but still 44.6 mb, or 7.1%, above the seasonal norm. Within products, distillate and naphtha stocks rose, while gasoline and residual fuel oil inventories witnessed draws.

Distillate stocks rose by 1.0 mb in March to end the month at 453.0 mb, which is 6.7 mb, or 1.5%, higher than the same time a year ago, and 54.6 mb, or 13.7%, above the latest five-year average. The build was driven mainly by lower demand in March compared to January. In contrast, gasoline stocks fell by 0.9 mb in March to stand at 123.9 mb, which is 0.4 mb, or 0.3%, higher than the same time one year ago, and 6.1 mb, or 5.2%, higher than the seasonal norm. The fall in gasoline stocks was mainly driven by lower output. Residual fuel oil stocks also fell by 0.3 mb in March to stand at 70.4 mb, which is 12.5 mb, or 15.0%, less than the same month a year ago, and 11.0 mb, or 13.5%, lower than the latest five-year average.

US
Preliminary data for April shows that US total commercial oil stocks rose slightly by 1.6 mb, reversing the fall of 17 mb in March. At 1,339 mb, US commercial stocks stood at 2.1 mb, or 0.2%, above the same period a year ago and 187 mb, or 16.2%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 7.8 mb, while products rose by 9.3 mb, m-o-m.

US commercial crude stocks fell in April, reversing the build of the last three consecutive months, to stand at 527.8 mb, which is 21.5 mb, or 4.2%, above the same time one year ago and 118.0 mb, or 28.8%, above the latest five-year average. The decline was mainly driven by higher crude throughput, which increased by nearly 1.0 mb/d to average 17.0 mb/d. However, higher crude imports limited further drops.

In contrast, total product stocks rose by 9.3 mb in April, reversing the drop of last two months, to stand at 811.2 mb, which is 19.4 mb, or 2.3%, down from the level seen at the same time in 2016, but 68.6 mb, or 9.2%, above the seasonal average. Within products, the picture was mixed, with gasoline and jet fuel showing builds, while distillates and residual fuel stocks witnessing stock draws.

Gasoline stocks rose by 2.1 mb in March, reversing the drop of the last two months. At 241.2 mb, they were 1.5 mb, or 0.6%, lower than the same period a year ago, but 17.4 mb, or 7.8%, above the latest five-year average. The build came mainly as a result of lower consumption, which declined by nearly 100 tb/d from the previous month to stand at 9.2 mb/d. Jet fuel oil inventories also rose by 1.3 mb to 43.4 mb in April, which is 0.1 mb, or 0.2%, down from the level seen the same time in 2016, but 2.9 mb, or 7.2%, above the seasonal norm.

In contrast, distillate stocks fell by 2.0 mb in April for the third consecutive month to stand at 150.4 mb, indicating a deficit of 4.3 mb, or 2.8%, the same period a year ago, yet 21.4 mb, or 16.6%, above the latest five-year average. The drop in middle distillate stocks mainly came as a result of relatively higher consumption as distillation production increased. Residual fuel stocks also fell by 0.2 mb, ending April at 39.4 mb, which is 3.8 mb, or 8.9%, below the same period a year ago and 0.8 mb, or 2.0%, higher than the latest five-year average.

Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks fell by 8.6 mb in March for the fifth consecutive month to stand at 131.8 mb, which is 11.7 mb, or 8.2%, less than the same time a year ago and 22.1 mb, or 14.4%, below the five-year average. Within the components, crude and products fell by 4.6 mb and 4.0 mb m-o-m, respectively.

Japanese commercial crude oil stocks fell in March to stand at 78.5 mb, which is 9.9 mb, or 11.2%, below the same period a year ago, and 14.7 mb, or 15.8%, below the seasonal norm. The fall was driven by lower crude imports, which decreased by 335 tb/d, or 9.5%, to average 3.2 mb/d. Lower crude throughputs limited further crude oil stock draws. Indeed, crude runs fell by 269 tb/d, or 7.5%, to stand at 3.35 mb/d.

Japanís total product inventories fell by 4.0 mb in March to stand at 53.3 mb, which is 1.8 mb, or 3.2%, lower than the same month the previous year, and 7.4 mb, or 12.1%, less than the seasonal norm. This stock draw came on the back of lower refinery output combined with lower product imports. With the exception of residual fuel, which remained unchanged, all other products witnessed stock draws.

Gasoline stocks fell in March by 0.3 mb to stand at 10.9 mb, which is 0.1 mb, or 1.3%, higher than the same time a year ago, but 1.4 mb, or 11.6%, below the latest five-year average. The decline was driven by higher domestic sales, which increased by 12% from the previous month.

Distillate stocks also fell, dropping by 3.5 mb in March, to stand at 20.5 mb, which is the same level as one year ago, but 3.2 mb, or 13.7%, below the seasonal average. Within the distillate components, gasoil and kerosene fell by 8.5% and 30%, respectively, while jet fuel rose by 2.0%. The fall in kerosene stocks came mainly from lower production, which fell by 17.8%, while the fall in gasoil was driven by higher domestic sales, which increased by 4.2%. The build in jet fuel stocks could be attributed to higher output, which increased by 31.2%. High domestic sales limited the build in jet fuel oil stocks.

Total residual fuel oil stocks remained almost unchanged in March to stand at 13.1 mb, which is 0.1 mb, or 0.7%, higher than a year ago, but 1.5 mb, or 10.1%, below the latest five-year average. Within the fuel oil components, fuel oil A rose by 1.3%, while fuel B.C fell by 0.5%. The build in fuel oil A was driven by higher production, which rose by 1.4%, while the fall in fuel oil B.C was attributed to higher exports.

China
The latest information for China showed that total commercial oil inventories fell by 5.3 mb in March, reversing the build of the last two months. At 390.9 mb, Chinese commercial oil inventories stood at 17.8 mb lower than the previous year. Within the components, crude and products stocks fell by 4.9 mb and 0.4 mb m-o-m, respectively.

In March, commercial crude stocks fell by 4.9 mb for the second consecutive month to stand at 217.8 mb, which is 20.1 mb below the previous year at the same time. This fall could be mainly attributed to higher crude runs as higher crude imports limited further draws in crude oil stocks.

Total product stocks in China also fell by 0.4 mb in March to stand at 173.1 mb, stood at 2.3 mb above the same time a year ago. Within products, the picture was mixed; gasoline saw a build, while diesel and kerosene witnessed stock draws.

Gasoline rose in March by 6.5 mb to stand at 71.2 mb driven by higher production. In contrast, diesel and kerosene inventories fell in March by 6.5 mb and 0.4 mb to stand at 82.1 mb and 19.8 mb, respectively. The fall in diesel stocks was mainly driven by higher demand from industrial and mining companies.

Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Singapore
At the end of March, product stocks in Singapore fell by 0.7 mb to stand at 51.7 mb, which is 1.5 mb, or 2.8%, below the same period a year ago. Within products, the picture was mixed; fuel oil saw a large drop, while light distillates witnessed a stock build. Middle distillates remained unchanged.

Residual fuel oil stocks fell in March by 1.7 mb in Singapore to stand at 24.9 mb, which is 0.5 mb, or 1.9%, lower than the same time a year ago. The stock draw was mainly driven by higher exports combined with higher marine bunker demand in the region.

In contrast, light distillate stocks rose by 1.1 mb in March to stand at 14.26 mb, which is 0.5 mb, or 3.6%, below the same time one year ago. The decline could be driven by lower imports as demand for this product was low in the region. Middle distillate stocks remained unchanged in March to end the month at 12.56 mb, which is 0.5 mb, or 3.5%, higher than the same period a year ago.

Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Product stocks in ARA rose massively by 5.7 mb in March to stand at 50.7 mb, which is 0.7 mb, or 1.3%, higher than at the same time a year ago. Within products, naphtha, fuel oil and gasoil saw builds, while jet oil and gasoline experienced stock draws.

Gasoil stocks rose by 2.8 mb in March to stand at 24.3 mb, which is 1.8 mb, or 6.8%, below the same time a year ago.

Fuel oil and naphtha inventories also rose, increasing by 4.5 mb and 0.4 mb, respectively. Fuel oil stocks and naphtha ended March above the same time a year ago.

In contrast, gasoline and jet fuel inventories fell by 1.2 mb and 0.8 mb, respectively. At 8.5 mb, gasoline stocks were 1.2 mb, or 12%, below the same time a year ago. Jet fuel oil stocks ended the month of March at 4.9 mb, which is 0.6 mb, or nearly 12%, lower than the same time a year ago.

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