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Stock Movements - November 2017

Source: OPEC_RP171111 11/13/2017, Location: Europe

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OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 23.6 mb in September to stand at 2,985 mb, which was around 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products indicated surpluses of 129 mb and 25 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, which was 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.

Preliminary data for October showed that US total commercial oil stocks fell massively by 37.4 mb to stand at 1,257 mb. At this level, they were 101 mb lower than the same period a year ago, but 73 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and product stocks dropped by 7.8 mb and 29.6 mb, m-o-m, respectively.

The latest information for China showed that total commercial oil inventories fell by 5.3 mb in September to settle at 365.9 mb, which was 6.7 mb lower than in the previous year. Within the components, crude stocks remained unchanged, while product stocks fell by 5.3 mb.

OECD
Preliminary data for September showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 23.6 mb for the second consecutive month to stand at 2,985 mb, which was around 83 mb lower than the same time one year ago, but 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude rose by 1.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 25.6 mb, m-o-m. All OECD regions witnessed stock-draws. It should be noted that the overhang was reduced by 29 mb from a month earlier and by 183 mb from January 2017.

OECD commercial crude stocks rose by 1.9 mb m-o-m in September, reversing the stock-draw of the last five consecutive months to stand at 1,499 mb, which was 8.0 mb lower than the same time a year ago, but 129 mb higher than the latest five-year average. OECD Americas experienced a stock build, while OECD Europe and Asia Pacific witnessed stock draws.

In contrast, OECD product inventories fell by 25.6 mb m-o-m in September to stand at 1,486 mb, which was 75 mb below the same time a year ago, but 25 mb above the seasonal norm. All OECD regions saw stock draws. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 0.9 days in September to stand at 62.3 days, which was 2.1 days below the same period in 2016, but 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.

Within the regions, OECD Americas had 2.9 more days of forward cover than the historical average to stand at 62.3 days in September. OECD Europe stood 0.7 days higher than the seasonal average to finish the month at 68.2 days, while OECD Asia Pacific indicated a surplus of 0.6 days higher than the seasonal norm, to stand at 52.5 days in September.

OECD Americas
Total commercial stocks in OECD Americas fell by 10.4 mb in September for the fourth consecutive month to stand at 1,569 mb, which was 52 mb below a year ago, but 113 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Within the components, crude rose by 5.6 mb, while product stocks fell by 16 mb.

At the end of September, commercial crude oil stocks in OECD Americas rose, ending the month at 816 mb, which was 8 mb below the same time one year ago, but 100 mb above the latest five-year average. Lower crude oil imports combined with lower refinery crude runs were behind the build in OECD crude oil stocks.

In contrast, commercial product stocks in OECD Americas fell by 16.0 mb in September, reversing the stock build of the last two months. At 753 mb, they were 48 mb less than the same time a year ago but 13 mb higher than the seasonal norm. This build was driven mainly by higher consumption in OECD Americas.

OECD Europe
OECD Europeís total commercial stocks fell by 11.8 mb in September, ending the month at 978 mb, which was 18 mb lower than in the same time a year ago, but 41 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and product stocks fell by 3.2 mb and 8.6 mb, respectively.

OECD Europeís commercial crude stocks fell in September by 3.2 mb to stand at 425 mb, which was 1.2 mb higher than a year earlier and 27 mb higher than the latest five-year average. This drop was mainly attributed to higher refinery throughput in September compared with the previous month.

OECD Europeís commercial product stocks also dropped by 8.6 mb to end September at 553 mb, which was 19 mb lower than the same time a year ago, but 14 mb higher than the seasonal norm. The fall in product stocks was driven by higher consumption in the region.

OECD Asia Pacific
OECD Asia Pacificís total commercial oil stocks fell by 1.4 mb in September to stand at 438 mb, which was 12 mb lower than a year ago and 0.6 mb lower than the five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks fell by 0.5 mb and 0.9 mb, respectively.

Crude inventories ended the month of September at 258 mb, 5.5 mb below a year ago and 2.0 mb above the seasonal norm. OECD Asia Pacificís total product inventories ended September at 180 mb, 6.9 mb lower than the same time a year ago and 2.6 mb lower than the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for September showed that total European stocks fell by 11.8 mb reversing the build of last two months. At 1,133 mb, European stocks were 16.2 mb, or 1.4%, lower than the same time a year ago, but 36 mb, or 3.3%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude stocks fell by 3.2 mb and product inventories dropped by 8.6 mb.

European crude inventories fell in September to stand at 489 mb, which was 2.3 mb, or 0.5%, higher than the same period a year ago. Compared to the seasonal average, they were 18 mb, or 3.8%, higher. The drop in crude oil stocks came on the back of higher refinery throughput, which increased by more than 20 tb/d to around 10.7 mb/d in September, compared with the previous month.

European product stocks also dropped by 8.6 mb, ending September at 643 mb, which was 18.5 mb, or 2.8%, lower than the same time a year ago, but 18.8 mb, or 3.0%, above the seasonal norm. All products witnessed stock draws.

Gasoline stocks fell by 2.0 mb in September, ending the month at 115 mb, which was 2.4 mb, or 2.1%, higher than the same time one year ago, and 5.0 mb, or 4.5%, higher than the seasonal norm.

Distillate stocks also fell by 4.0 mb in September to end the month at 440 mb, indicating a deficit of 11.6 mb or 2.6% with the same time a year ago, but 27 mb, or 6.5%, above the latest five-year average. Higher domestic consumption in the region was behind the drop in both products.

Residual fuel oil stocks fell by 0.8 mb in September to stand at 67 mb, which was 7.7 mb, or 10.3%, less than the same month a year ago, and 10.5 mb, or 13.6%, lower than the latest five-year average.

US
Preliminary data for October showed that US total commercial oil stocks fell massively by 37.4 mb, for the fifth consecutive month to stand at 1,257.0 mb. At this level, they were 101 mb, or 7.4%, lower than the same period a year ago, but 73 mb, or 6.2%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and product stocks dropped by 7.8 mb and 29.6 mb, respectively.

US crude commercial stocks fell in October to end the month at 457 mb, standing 34 mb below last year at the same time, but 57 mb above the latest five-year average. The fall came on higher refinery runs averaging 16.23 mb/d, which corresponds to a utilization rate of 87.5%, 3.1 pp higher than a month earlier. Higher crude imports limited the draw in crude oil stocks. Crude inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma rose by 2.1 mb to end October at 64.6 mb.

Total product stocks also fell substantially by 29.6 mb in October, following a stock draw of 18.6 mb in the previous month, to stand at 799.9 mb. At this level, they were 67 mb, or 7.7%, down from the level seen at the same time in 2016, but 16 mb, or 2.1%, above the seasonal average. All products experienced stock draws.

Gasoline stocks fell by 9.4 mb in October to stand at 210 mb, they stood 16.1 mb, or 7.1 %, below a year ago at the same time, but were 3.2 mb or 1.5% above the seasonal norm. Following two consecutive weeks of build in the beginning of the month, gasoline stocks in the US reversed this trend to drop by nearly 13 mb over the last three weeks, driven mainly by stronger demand, averaging 9.2 mb/d. Lower gasoline production also contributed to the drop in gasoline stocks.

Distillate stocks also fell by 9.9 mb in October for the sixth consecutive month, to stand at 125.6 mb. At this level, they indicated a deficit of 29 mb, or 19%, over the same period a year ago, and 5.5 mb, or 4.2%, below the latest five-year average. The drop in distillate stocks came on the back on higher demand combined with lower output. This tightness in the distillates market at the beginning of the winter season could be seen as a factor supporting the US oil market.

Residual fuel and jet fuel fell by 3.9 mb and 3.3 mb to end October at 32.7 mb and 40.1 mb, respectively. Both product stocks stood below last year at the same time and less than the five-year average.

Japan
Japanís total commercial oil stocks fell by 2.4 mb in September, for the second month in a row to stand at 144.8 mb. At this level, they stood 12.4 mb, or 7.9%, below the same time a year ago and 24.4 mb, or 14.4%, below the five-year average. Within the components, crude and product stocks declined by 0.5 mb and 1.9 mb, respectively.

Japanís commercial crude oil stocks decreased in September to stand at 81 mb, which was 7.8 mb, or 8.8%, below the same period a year ago, and 15.1 mb, or 14.4%, below the seasonal norm. The drop was driven by lower crude imports which fell by 34,000 b/d, or 1.0%, to average 3.1 mb/d. However, lower crude throughput, which declined by more than 180 tb/d, or 5.4%, to average 3.2 mb/d limited the drop in crude oil stocks.

Japanís total product inventories also fell by 1.9 mb in September to stand at 63.7 mb, which was 4.6 mb or 6.7% lower than the same month in the previous year, and 9.4 mb, or 12.8 %, lower than the seasonal norm. With exception of middle distillates, all product stocks witnessed a stockdraw.

Distillate stocks rose by 0.9 mb in September to stand at 31.0 mb, which was 3.2 mb, or 9.2%, below one year ago at the same time, and 4.1 mb, or 11.6 %, below the seasonal average. Within the distillate components, jet fuel and kerosene stocks rose by 6.2% and 11% respectively, while gas oil fell by around 12.2 % m-o-m. The increase in jet fuel and kerosene was driven mainly by higher output. In contrast, higher gasoil domestic sales have led to the drop in gasoil inventories.

Gasoline stocks fell in September by 0.2 mb to stand at 10.3 mb, which was 0.1 mb, or 1.4%, higher than the same time a year ago, but 1.1 mb, or 9.4%, below the latest five-year average. The fall was driven by lower output, which fell by almost 10% from the previous month. Lower domestic sales limited the drop in gasoline inventories.

Total residual fuel oil stocks fell by 1.1 mb in September to stand at 13.0 mb, to stand 0.5 mb, or 3.9% lower than the same period a year ago, and 2.8 mb, or 17.9%, below the latest five-year average. Within the fuel oil components, fuel oil A rose by 1.5% on the back of higher imports, while fuel B.C fell by 6.5% mainly due to higher domestic sales.

China
The latest information for China showed that total commercial oil inventories fell by 5.3 mb in September for the third consecutive month to settle at 365.9 mb, which was 6.7 mb lower than the previous year. Within the components, crude stocks remained unchanged, while products stocks fell by 5.3 mb.

In September, commercial crude stocks remained unchanged to stand at 225.8 mb, and were 8.7 mb below last year at the same time. The fall in domestic crude production offset the increase in crude oil imports resulting in stable stocks compared to the previous month.

In contrast, total product stocks in China fell in September by 5.3 mb to end the month at 140.1 mb, which was 2.0 mb above the same time a year ago. Within products, kerosene and diesel witnessed stock draws, while gasoline rose versus the previous month.

Gasoline stocks rose by 1.6 mb to stand at 66.3 mb, which was 0.5 mb lower than the same period a year ago. This build was mainly driven by higher gasoline output.

Diesel inventories fell by 6.1 mb in September to stand at 55.3 mb. At this level, diesel stocks were 2.0 mb above a year ago at the same time. The drop in diesel could be attributed to higher consumption as diesel demand picked up on the back of an increase in infrastructure, industrial and mining projects.

Kerosene stocks also fell by 0.8 mb in September to stand at 18.4 mb, which was 0.6 mb higher than the same time a year earlier.

Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Singapore
At the end of September, product stocks in Singapore fell by 6.6 mb to stand at 44.9 mb, which was 3.8 mb, or 7.7%, below the same period a year ago. All products witnessed stock draws.

Light distillate and Middle distillate stocks fell in September by 1.0 mb and 2.3 mb, to stand at 11.3 mb and 10.6 mb, respectively. The stocks draw in both products was driven by higher domestic in the region. Both product stocks remained below the same time one year ago.

Residual fuel oil stocks also dropped by 3.4 mb in September reversing the build of the last three consecutive months. At 23.0 mb, fuel oil stocks stood at 1.0 mb, or 4.2%, below the same period a year ago.

Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Product stocks in ARA fell by 1.2 mb in September to end the month at 42.8 mb, almost in line with the same time a year ago. Within products, with the exception of gasoil, all other products dropped.

Gasoline and fuel oil stocks fell by 0.2 mb and 1.1 mb in September to stand at 2.4 mb and 19.3 mb, respectively. Fuel oil stocks remained 14 mb above the same time a year ago, while gasoil stood at 3.9 mb below last year at the same time.

In contrast, gas oil stocks rose by 1.0 mb in September to stand at 5.5 mb. At this level, they were 18 mb below last year at the same month.

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