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Africa Oil Supply - February 2012

Source: OPEC 2/18/2012, Location: Africa

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Africa’s oil supply is forecast to average 2.56 mb/d in 2012, representing a drop of 20 tb/d from the previous year and a downward revision of 25 tb/d, compared with the previous month. Sudan’s oil supply saw a downward revision of 30 tb/d, with the reported shutdown of South Sudan’s production of around 350 tb/d. This came on the back of a dispute over transit with Sudan and it is not clear when output will resume. Data remains very limited regarding both Sudan’s and South Sudan’s production and could cause major revisions to the forecast, once available. Furthermore, the forecast for Sudan’s oil supply (which includes both countries) is connected with a very high level of risk, mainly on political issues, as well as a lack of data. The security situation is reported to be deteriorating, with oil-workers being kidnapped. Ghana’s oil supply encountered a downward revision, due to technical difficulties that are delaying peak production at the Jubilee oil project to 2013, and production from the field is put at 70 tb/d — and 90 tb/d in 2012. On the other hand, Cameroon’s oil supply is expected to increase by around 30 tb/d, supported by developments, such as the Dissoni project. On a quarterly basis, Africa’s supply is seen to average 2.53 mb/d, 2.57 mb/d, 2.57 mb/d and 2.56 mb/d respectively.

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