Estimate for 2011
Demand for OPEC crude for 2011 remained unchanged from the previous assessment, as both non-OPEC supply and demand saw a similar downward adjustment, leaving the demand for OPEC crude unchanged. At 30.1 mb/d, the demand for OPEC crude stood at 0.4 mb/d above the 2010 level. In 1Q11 and 2Q11, demand for OPEC crude showed growth of 0.9 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d, respectively, while 3Q11 saw slight growth of 0.1 mb/d. The 4Q11 is seen increasing 0.4 mb/d compared to the same quarter a year ago.
Forecast for 2012
The demand for OPEC crude for 2012 is projected to average 30.0 mb/d, unchanged from the last report, as the downward revision in world oil demand offset the downward adjustment in non-OPEC supply. Within quarters, the revision was mixed as 1Q12 and 2Q12 saw an upward adjustment of 0.1 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d, respectively, while 4Q12 was revised down by 0.2 mb/d. The 3Q12 remained unchanged from the previous assessment. Required OPEC crude is forecast to show a decline of 0.1 mb/d from the previous year. Estimates for 1Q12 and 3Q12 expect negative growth of 0.1 mb/d for both quarters, while 2Q12 is expected to remain unchanged. 4Q12 is projected to see negative growth of 0.2 mb/d compared to the same quarter last year.