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Africa Oil Supply - March 2012

Source: OPEC 3/17/2012, Location: Africa

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Africa’s oil supply is forecast to decline by 90 tb/d in 2012 to average 2.50 mb/d, indicating a downward revision of 60 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision has affected former Sudan’s and Ghana’s oil supply forecasts. Former Sudan’s oil production outlook, which includes both Sudan and South Sudan, is forecast to decline by 0.12 mb/d in 2012 to average 0.31 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 40 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision has been driven by South Sudan’s production shutdown. Limited production data and uncertainty regarding the restart of its production point to a high risk level for the supply projection for 2012. For the time being, a partial return to production is assumed for the second quarter, which might need an adjustment to the figure as the year progress. The expulsion of the President of South Sudan’s leading oil producer company, as well as the bombing of some wells, could have a further negative impact on production in the coming months. On the other hand, the resumption of negotiations on transit fees in early March could bring an end to the situation. Ghana’s oil supply forecast has experienced a minor downward revision, due to further delays being seen as affecting the Jubilee field’s growth in 2012. On a quarterly basis, Africa supply is expected to stand at 2.41 mb/d, 2.48 mb/d, 2.57 mb/d and 2.56 mb/d respectively.

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