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Africa Oil Supply - April 2012

Source: OPEC 5/1/2012, Location: Africa

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Africa’s oil supply is projected to decline by 0.15 mb/d, to average 2.44 mb/d in 2012, indicating a downward revision of 60 tb/d from the previous MOMR. Downward revisions were introduced for Congo’s, Sudan and South Sudan’s as well as Other Africa’s supply forecasts, while the production outlook for Equatorial Guinea was revised up. The downward revisions for Congo and Other Africa were made to adjust for updated production data in the first quarter that was partly carried over to the rest of the year. Sudan and South Sudan’s oil supply is expected to decline by 0.17 mb/d and average 0.26 mb/d in 2012, representing a downward revision of 50 tb/d from the previous MOMR. A downward revision was seen in all quarters, with the first quarter experiencing a smaller revision than the others. Intense fighting across the border partly drove the downward revision. Yet Sudanese officials maintained that the Heglig field and oil infrastructure were not affected. Sudan announced a plan to increase production by 80 tb/d by the end of the year. A South Sudan top negotiator announced that the country hoped to resolve the row over oil and other issues within a month or two. However, a Sudanese negotiator provided a bleak outlook for the dispute to be resolved in near future. The Tsimiroro project in Madagascar is expected to start up by the end of 2012. On a quarterly basis, Africa supply is expected to average 2.39 mb/d, 2.41 mb/d, 2.49 mb/d and 2.49 mb/d respectively.

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