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Africa Oil Supply - August 2012

Source: OPEC 9/10/2012, Location: Africa

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African oil production is anticipated to drop by 170 tb/d in 2012 to 2.42 mb/d, indicating an upward revision of 85 tb/d from the previous MOMR. The revision was introduced to the South Sudan and Sudan oil supply forecast. Reports indicated an agreement had been reached between the two nations in early August and the halted output is expected resume gradually.

The Sudans’ production is expected to increase on average by 140 tb/d in the second half of 2012, compared with the first half. However, risks remain associated with the forecast, as the details of the agreement remain unknown and the security situation will play a major role in the supply situation. The upward revision from the Sudans offset a minor downward revision to Congo’s production forecast due to updated production data. Gabon’s supply forecast has been revised up slightly, due to updated historical data. On a quarterly basis, supply from Africa is expected to average 2.41 mb/d, 2.31 mb/d, 2.43 mb/d and 2.54 mb/d respectively.

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