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Africa Oil Supply - September 2012

Source: OPEC 10/3/2012, Location: Africa

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African oil supply is expected to average 2.36 mb/d in 2012, representing a decline of 0.23 mb/d over last year, indicating a downward revision of 60 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. The downward revision came from South Sudan and Sudan, while a minor upward revision was seen in Ghana’s supply forecast that partially offset the downward revision. Most African producers’ supply forecasts are either seen to be steady or declining in 2012, except for Gabon and Ghana.

Gabon oil production is expected to increase by 20 tb/d in 2012 to average 0.32 mb/d. Ghana Jubilee field oil production increased to 80 tb/d from around 60 tb/d on enhanced oil recovery (EOR) by acid simulation on some wells. The field’s output remains below the target of 120 tb/d, yet new barrels are expected toward the end of the year. South Sudan and Sudan oil production is forecast to average 0.14 mb/d in 2012, a decline of 0.29 mb/d compared to the previous year, indicating a downward revision of 70 tb/d compared to the previous month. The downward revision was introduced as an announcement came that South Sudan will restart some shutdown production in December and the rest will come onstream in 2013. Some reports suggested that minor quantities will be restarted soon. On a quarterly basis, African oil supply is seen to average 2.41 mb/d, 2.31 mb/d, 2.34 mb/d, and 2.38 mb/d, respectively.

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