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Africa Oil Supply - April 2013

Source: OPEC 5/2/2013, Location: Africa

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Africa’s oil supply is projected to increase by 50 tb/d in 2013 to average 2.37 mb/d, indicating an upward revision of 35 tb/d from the previous MOMR. Upward revisions were introduced for Sudan and South Sudan’s, as well as Other Africa’s, supply forecasts. The upward revision for Other Africa was made to adjust for updated production data in the first quarter that was partly carried over to the rest of the year.

Sudan and South Sudan’s supply is expected to increase by 60 tb/d and average 0.18 mb/d in 2013, representing an upward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision came on the back of the agreement to restart South Sudan’s flow and on reports that the country had restarted production. However, the security and installation damage issues remain unclear at this point. While South Sudan announced the restart of output, it is not clear how much oil will be produced and how long it will take to reach the pre-shutdown level. With limited production data, further upward revisions might be on the horizon, once more details emerge about the situation. On a quarterly basis, Africa’s supply is expected to average 2.31 mb/d, 2.33 mb/d, 2.40 mb/d and 2.42 mb/d respectively.

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