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Africa Oil Supply in June 2013

Source: OPEC 6/17/2013, Location: Africa

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Africa’s oil supply is forecast to average 2.38 mb/d in 2013, an increase of 70 tb/d from 2012, flat from the previous MOMR. Despite the steady state, there were few upward and downward revisions that offset each other compared to last month. Congo’s oil production forecast experienced a downward revision on the back of changes to the expected output in the second half. Oil supply from Congo is expected to average 0.28 mb/d in 2013, a decline of 20 tb/d from previous year. Equatorial Guinea’s oil supply encountered an upward revision of 10 tb/d on the back adjustment to actual production figures in the first quarter that was carried over to the rest of the Year. Output from Equatorial Guinea is seen to average 0.31 mb/d in 2013, steady from the previous year. South Sudan’s and Sudan’s oil production is expected to increase by 80 tb/d in 2013 and average 0.19 mb/d, steady from previous assessment. The restart of the Palogue oil field from South Sudan would have brought an upward revision to the forecast. However, the short shutdown due to technical difficulties, as well as the ongoing political issues between South Sudan and Sudan suggest maintaining current projection with careful monitoring in the coming period. On a quarterly basis, Africa’s supply is expected to average 2.32 mb/d, 2.36 mb/d, 2.41 mb/d and 2.44 mb/d, respectively.

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