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Africa Oil Supply in September 2013

Source: OPEC 10/9/2013, Location: Africa

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Africa’s oil supply is expected to average 2.42 mb/d in 2013, representing an increase of 0.10 mb/d over last year, indicating an upward revision of 25 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. The upward revision came from South Sudan and Sudan. Most African producers’ supply forecasts are either seen to be steady or declining in 2013, except for South Sudan and Sudan, and Ghana. Congo’s oil production is expected to decrease by 20 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.28 mb/d due to the natural decline impact of the Azurite field output. South Sudan’s and Sudan’s oil production is forecast to average 0.22 mb/d in 2013, an increase of 0.10 mb/d compared to the previous year, indicating an upward revision of 10 tb/d compared to the previous month. The upward revision was introduced as the two nations averted the previously extended shutdown of the connecting pipeline and decided to continue with the established agreement. Further upward revision to the supply forecast might be experienced in the coming period if the two nations demonstrate commitment to the agreements. On a quarterly basis, African oil supply is seen to average 2.32 mb/d, 2.43 mb/d, 2.44 mb/d and 2.49 mb/d, respectively.

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