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Asia Oil Supply in March 2014

Source: OPEC 3/19/2014, Location: Asia

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OECD Asia Pacific’s oil supply is estimated to decline by 90 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.48 mb/d, with numbers unchanged from the previous month’s estimation. It is forecast that the total output of the region will increase by 10 tb/d to average 0.49 mb/d in 2014.

On a quarterly basis, the total OECD Asia Pacific oil supply in 2014 is estimated to average 0.47 mb/d, 0.50 mb/d, 0.51 mb/d and 0.49 mb/d, respectively.

Australia’s oil supply is estimated to decrease by 80 tb/d to average 0.40 mb/d in 2013. It is anticipated the Australian oil output in 2014 will increase by 20 tb/d to average 0.42 mb/d, with a downward revision by 10 tb/d compared with the last MOMR. Australia’s oil production outlook for 2014 remains steady on expected healthy oil supplies from new startup projects. New Zealand’s production is also forecast to decline over one year ago to average 47 tb/d in 2014.

Developing countries
Total Developing Countries’ (DCs’) oil output saw a downward revision by 30 tb/d from the last MOMR to reach 12.11 mb/d. The revisions came from new production data received on Syrian output in 2012. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply in DCs in 2013 is estimated to average 12.09 mb/d, 12.07 mb/d, 12.07 mb/d and 12.21 mb/d, respectively.

Total DC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.24 mb/d to average 12.37 mb/d in 2014, unchanged from the previous month. This growth is mainly supported by Latin America and Africa, with a minor increase in Middle East, while Other Asia’s supply is expected to drop this year. Growth in 2014 is foreseen after a significant decline in 2013, which occurred mainly due to political, technical and weather factors.

On a quarterly basis, total oil supply in DCs in 2014 is projected to average 12.27 mb/d, 12.31 mb/d, 12.38 mb/d and 12.50 mb/d, respectively.

Other Asia
Other Asia’s oil production is estimated to decrease by 80 tb/d in 2013 to average 3.56 mb/d, representing an upward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This has partially carried over to 2014. The revision came from higher-than-expected numbers in 4Q13, up by 19 tb/d. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply in Other Asia in 2013 is estimated to average 3.66 mb/d, 3.59 mb/d, 3.47 mb/d and 3.52 mb/d, respectively. It is predicted that total oil supply from this region will drop by 30 tb/d to average 3.53 mb/d in 2014.

On a quarterly basis, 2014 supply is forecast at 3.54 mb/d, 3.52 mb/d, 3.53 mb/d and 3.51 mb/d, respectively.

India’s oil supply was sustained at 0.87 mb/d in all quarters of 2013 with a decline of 10 tb/d compared to 2012. This is expected to decrease by another 10 tb/d in 2014 to average 0.86 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. Thailand’s production in 2013 is expected to grow by 10 tb/d to reach 0.37 mb/d, but output in 2014 is expected to drop by 10 tb/d to average 0.35 mb/d. While Indonesia’s oil production in the previous year averaged 0.94 mb/d, it showed a decline of 50 tb/d over 2012 and is expected to decrease by 10 tb/d in 2014 to average 0.93 mb/d, with a downward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR.

Malaysia’s liquids supply saw a downward revision of 10 tb/d over the previous month’s assessment; it is estimated to average 0.65 mb/d in 2013, declining by 10 tb/d compared with 2012. Its expected production will reach 2012’s level of 0.66 mb/d in the current year. In the second quarter of this year, the deep water Gumusut field offshore Sabah in Malaysia is scheduled to see first oil, marking the start of the larger Gumusutkakap development across Blocks K and J; it is currently going through the final stages of commissioning. The project, which will peak at 135 tb/d, is Malaysia’s second deep water development after Kikeh located in Block K. Once Gumusut comes online, production from the combined Gumusut–Kakap development will arrive via a new 150 tb/d floating production system that was moored at the site in June last year.

Vietnam’s production was unchanged to average 0.39 mb/d compared with the previous year and will remain at the same level this year. Brunei’s oil supply in 2013 declined by 20 tb/d to average 0.14 mb/d. It is forecast to see a decline in 2014, to average 0.12 mb/d.

Other Asia’s oil supply is forecast to decline by 10 tb/d to average 0.21 mb/d in 2014 from 0.22 mb/d in 2013, unchanged from a year earlier.

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