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Africa Oil Supply in June 2014

Source: OPEC 6/18/2014, Location: Africa

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Africa’s oil supply is forecast to average 2.51 mb/d in 2014, an increase of 90 tb/d from 2013, and flat from the previous MOMR. However, a minor downward revision was made for 1Q14 output on the back of a downward revision by 12 tb/d in Africa Other’s oil production.

On a quarterly basis, Africa’s supply is expected to average 2.52 mb/d, 2.51 mb/d, 2.51 mb/d and 2.51 mb/d, respectively. Oil production in Chad and South Africa are expected to remain steady in 2014, averaging 0.13 mb/d and 0.18 mb/d, respectively. Congo’s oil production and Gabon’s output are forecast to decline by 10 tb/d each to average 0.25 mb/d and 0.22 mb/d, respectively. It is expected that oil production in Egypt will decline by 30 tb/d to average 0.69 mb/d in 2014. On the other hand, oil output in Africa Others will increase by 30 tb/d to average 0.37 mb/d. Equatorial Guinea’s oil supply is seen to increase by 10 tb/d to average 0.33 mb/d in 2014. South Sudan and Sudan’s oil production is expected to increase by 0.11 b/d in 2014 and average 0.34 mb/d, steady from the previous assessment.

As the conflict between South Sudan’s government and the rebels winds down, healthy production is gradually returning on stream, particularly in South Sudan. Oil output in the Sudans before separation averaged 0.45 mb/d in 1Q11.



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