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Africa Oil Supply - October 14

Source: OPEC 10/16/2014, Location: Africa

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African oil supply is forecast to increase by 0.05 mb/d in 2014 to average 2.45 mb/d, unchanged from the previous MOMR. Despite this steady state, individual countries’ oil supply forecasts saw a few upward and downward revisions which offset each other. Oil production from Chad and Equatorial Guinea are expected to see minor growth of 20 tb/d and 10 tb/d to average, 0.14 mb/d and 0.33 mb/d, respectively. Egypt and Africa other will show declines of 20 tb/d and 10 tb/d to average 0.70 mb/d and 0.33 mb/d, respectively. The supply forecast for Congo, Gabon and South Africa is unchanged from the previous year to average 0.26 mb/d, 0.23 mb/d and 0.17 mb/d, respectively.

Oil supply from the Sudans averaged 0.24 mb/d in 2013, an increase of 0.12 mb/d compared with the previous year, indicating an upward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR. Fighting between the South Sudanese government and rebels, led by the previous vice president, has cut oil output to 185 tb/d. Total production of the Sudans is expected to grow by 50 tb/d from a year earlier to average 0.29 mb/d in 2014. Moreover, more wells have come back online and output is expected to increase toward pre-shutdown levels, if downside risks do not materialise. On a quarterly basis, Africa’s oil supply is estimated to average 2.49 mb/d, 2.45 mb/d, 2.44 mb/d and 2.42 mb/d, respectively.

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