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Russia Oil Supply - December 2016

Source: OPEC 12/19/2016, Location: Asia

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Russia’s oil production was more or less stagnant at 11.29 mb/d in November and higher y-o-y by 0.40 mb/d. Russian oil output is expected to increase by 0.20 mb/d to average 11.05 mb/d in 2016. Russia will benefit next year from exploitation of new oil fields in Western Siberia, Eastern Siberia, the Arctic and the Caspian which started up in 2016. It is expected that these oil fields, with a total peak capacity of 0.8 mb/d, could compensate for annual decline rates in mature fields, which are estimated at 3.7%–4.0% per annum.

The Russian oil industry has managed to perform well and both investment and production are growing, despite low oil prices. Investment in the energy sector – which should rise by 15% in 2016 to 3.6 trillion rubles ($55.5 billion) – has materialized, despite the challenging market environment. Russian companies have maintained, or even increased, spending over the past two years, capitalizing on a weaker ruble. While upstream capex for the seven largest companies declined by 18% and 10% in USD terms in 2015 and 2016, respectively; in ruble terms, spending rose by 30% in 2015 and was maintained at this level in 2016.

On 10 December, Russia and ten other non-OPEC producers agreed in a Ministerial Meeting with OPEC Members to adjust their production, voluntarily or through managed decline, starting from 1 January 2017 for six months, extendable for another six months, to take into account prevailing market conditions and prospects. The combined reduction target was agreed at 558 tb/d.

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