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OECD Stock Movements - December 2016

Source: OPEC 1/5/2017, Location: Europe

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Preliminary data for October shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 15.3 mb for the third consecutive month to stand at 3,027 mb, which is around 71 mb higher than at the same time one year ago and 302 mb above the latest five-year average. From January to October this year, OECD commercial stock builds have shown signs of slowing as they increased by only 41 mb compared with a build of 257 mb the previous year during the same period. The slowing build this year could be attributed to lower global supply growth compared with the considerable growth seen the previous year. Within components, crude rose by 19.5 mb, while product stocks fell by 34.8 mb.

OECD commercial crude stocks rose in October, ending the month at 1,513 mb, standing 32 mb above the same time one year earlier and around 184 mb higher than the latest five-year average. OECD America and OECD Asia Pacific experienced builds, while OECD Europe stocks remained almost unchanged.

In contrast, OECD product inventories fell sharply by 34.8 mb following a drop of 11.1 mb in September. At 1,514 mb, OECD product inventories are 14.7 mb above a year ago at the same time and 118 mb above the seasonal norm. Within regions, OECD North America and OECD Asia Pacific saw a drop, while OECD Europe experienced a build.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks were unchanged in October to stand at 65.3 days, which is 1.3 days above the previous year in the same period and 6.3 days higher than the latest five-year average. Within the regions, OECD Americas had 7.4 more days of forward cover than the historical average to stand at 64.7 days in October. OECD Asia Pacific stood 5.0 days above the seasonal average to finish the month of October at 53.8 days. At the same time, OECD Europe indicated a surplus of 5.0 days above the seasonal norm, averaging 73.6 days in October.

Commercial stocks in OECD Americas fell by 18.8 mb in October, following a drop of 14.8 mb in September, to settle at 1,592 mb, a surplus of 46 mb above a year ago and 207 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Within components, crude stocks rose by 15.9 mb, while products fell by 34.7 mb.

At the end of October, commercial crude oil stocks in OECD Americas rose, ending the month at 831 mb, which was 32 mb above the same time one year ago, and 142 mb above the latest five-year average. Higher crude imports were behind the build in crude oil stocks. The decline in US crude throughput in October also contributed to the build in OECD America crude inventories.

In contrast, product stocks in OECD Americas fell by 34.7 mb, ending October at 760 mb, but still indicating a surplus of 15 mb above the same time one year ago and 64 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Higher consumption, mainly distillate products, combined with lower refinery output, was behind the drop in OECD America product stocks.

OECD Europe’s commercial stocks rose by 2.7 mb in October, ending the month at 984 mb, which is 13 mb higher than at the same time a year ago and 71 mb above the latest five-year average. Product stocks rose by 2.8 mb, while crude stocks remained almost unchanged.

OECD Europe’s commercial crude stocks remained almost unchanged in October, ending the month at 417 mb, which is in line with the same period a year earlier and 23.4 mb higher than the latest five-year average. The decline in crude production from the North Sea offset a decrease in crude throughput.

OECD Europe’s commercial product stocks rose by 2.8 mb to end October at 567 mb, which is 13 mb higher than a year ago at the same time and 48 mb higher than the seasonal norm. This build could be attributed to lower demand in the region combined with lower refinery output.

OECD Asia Pacific commercial oil stocks rose slightly by 0.8 mb in October to settle at 451 mb, which is 12 mb higher than a year ago and 24.8 mb above the five-year average. Within components, crude rose by 3.6 mb, while product stocks fell by 2.8 mb. In October, crude inventories ended the month at 265 mb, which is 5.4 mb below a year ago, yet 18.3 mb above the seasonal norm. OECD Asia Pacific’s total product inventories ended October at 186 mb, standing 13 mb higher than the same time a year ago and 6.2 mb above the seasonal norm.

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