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OPEC Expects Growth in 2017 Non-OPEC Oil Supply

Source: 3/16/2017, Location: Asia

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Preliminary data indicates that the world’s oil supply decreased in February by 0.21 million barrels per day, as compared to January to average 95.88 million barrels per day, OPEC said in its March Oil Market Report.

In 2017, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.40 million barrels per day, following an upward revision of 0.16 million barrels per day, to average 57.74 million barrels per day, said the report.

On a country-by-country basis, the main contributors to growth in 2017 are expected to be the US with 0.34 mb/d, Brazil and Canada with 0.26 mb/d each, Kazakhstan with 0.14 mb/d, Africa other with 0.04 mb/d and Congo with 0.04 mb/d, according to OPEC.

This forecast is driven mainly by higher expectations for Canadian oil sands output and higher growth in the US.

Moreover, US oil supply growth for 2017 was revised up by 0.10 million barrels per day to 0.34 million barrels per day, following higher rig counts and stronger cash flows.

“OPEC NGLs (natural gas liquids) production and non-conventional liquids were revised down by 10,000 b/d to average 6.09 b/d in 2016, an increase of 0.14 b/d. In 2017, they are forecast to grow by 0.13 mb/d to average 6.21 mb/d, following a downward revision of 30,000 b/d,” said the report.

In December 2016 in Vienna, 11 non-OPEC countries, including Azerbaijan, agreed to curtail oil output jointly by 558,000 barrels per day. The agreement was signed for the first half of 2017, with the possibility of extension.

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