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Oil Trade - May 2017

Source: OPEC_RP170510 5/11/2017, Location: Europe

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In April, preliminary data shows that US crude oil imports went up to average 8.2 mb/d, an increase of 250 tb/d from last month and 579 tb/d from last year. On a year-to-date (y-t-d) basis, US crude imports in April were 311 tb/d higher. US product monthly imports were down from the previous month by 223 tb/d, and by 232 tb/d from previous year. Japan’s crude oil imports dropped in March from the previous month by 335 tb/d, or 10%, to average 3.2 mb/d. Y-o-y, crude imports decreased from last year by 356 tb/d. Japan’s product imports dropped in March to the lowest level since October 2016, down by 108 tb/d, to average 534 tb/d. Y-o-y, product imports were up by 56 tb/d. China’s crude imports reached new record high levels in March, increasing by 889 tb/d, to average 9.2 mb/d, while crude imports remained higher from last year by a remarkable 1.5 mb/d. China’s product imports went down by 84 tb/d and 72 tb/d from the previous month and previous year, respectively. India’s crude oil imports were flat in March from the previous month, while y-o-y, they dropped by 79 tb/d, or 2%, to average 4.3 mb/d. India’s product imports were generally stable from the previous month, averaging 917 tb/d in March.

US
Preliminary data shows that US crude oil imports in April went up to average 8.2 mb/d, which is an increase of 250 tb/d from the previous month and 579 tb/d from last year. Y-t-d, US crude imports in April were 311 tb/d higher.

US product imports were down from the previous month by 223 tb/d and from the previous year by 232 tb/d.

US product exports were 158 tb/d lower than a month ago to average 4.8 mb/d. On an annual comparison, product exports were 240 tb/d higher than the previous year.

As a result, US total net imports rose in April by 180 tb/d, or 4%, to average 4.6 mb/d.

In February, the top first and second suppliers to the US maintained the same order as previously seen. Canada was the prime crude supplier to the US with a share of 44% of total US crude imports, slightly lower than January, by 22 tb/d, to average 3.5 mb/d. Saudi Arabia came in as the second-biggest supplier to the US with no significant change in its exports from the previous month, exporting 1.3 mb/d to the US in February. Venezuela came in as the third-largest supplier, accounting for 9% of total US crude imports. Similarly, Venezuela exports to the US were lower in February from the previous month by 25 tb/d.

Total crude imports from OPEC Member Countries were down in February from the previous month by 403 tb/d, or 11%, accounting for 40% of total US crude imports. US product imports from OPEC Member Countries rose by 55 tb/d from the previous month and were 12 tb/d higher than the previous year. As for the product suppliers’ shares, Canada and Russia maintained their positions as first and second suppliers to the US, accounting for 31% and 13%, respectively. Algeria came in as the third-biggest supplier to the US, holding a share of 7%, which an increase of 44 tb/d from the previous month.

US crude imports by region registered no major changes in February 2017 as seen before. The largest crude import volumes in the US came from North America, averaging 3.5 mb/d, followed by the Middle East, which averaged 2 mb/d in February. Latin America came in as the third region with an average of 1.95 mb/d. Imports from Africa dropped from one month ago to average 387 tb/d in February.

As for crude imports by PADD, in PADD 1, on the East Coast, imports dropped by 177 tb/d from Africa and by 92 tb/d from North America. Imports from PADD 2 were mostly sourced from North America, which stood at 2.5 mb/d, up by 90 tb/d from January. PADD 3 sourced its largest imports from Latin America, followed by the Middle East. Imports from both regions dropped by 165 tb/d and 28 tb/d, respectively, in February.

PADD 4 imported 270 tb/d from North America, a decrease of 55 tb/d from the previous month. In PADD 5, on the West Coast, the highest imports came from the Middle East, averaging 430 tb/d in February, followed by imports from Latin America and North America, which averaged 363 tb/d and 227 tb/d, respectively.

Japan
Japan’s crude oil imports dropped in March from the previous month by 335 tb/d, or 9%, to average 3.2 mb/d. Y-o-y, crude imports decreased from last year by 356 tb/d. At the same time, Japan’s refinery throughput went down from the month before as the refinery maintenance season continued.

Looking at the crude suppliers’ shares, Saudi Arabia, as in previous month, came in as the first crude supplier to Japan, holding a share of 42% of total crude imports, yet with lesser volume, by 101 tb/d, from a month before. The UAE came in as the second largest supplier to Japan with a share of 23% of total crude imports, remaining stable from one month before. Qatar came in as third supplier in March with a share of 9%, as volumes imported from Qatar were up from the previous month by 10 tb/d.

Japan’s product imports dropped in March to the lowest level since October of the previous year, down by 108 tb/d, to average 534 tb/d, which could be driven by the fall of Japan’s product sales by 3.7% from the previous year.

Japan’s products exports in March remained high, up from the previous month by 20 tb/d, to average 589 tb/d, while it recorded a drop of 34 tb/d, or 5%, from the previous year.

Accordingly, Japan’s net imports dropped in March by 463 tb/d to average 3.1 mb/d.

China
China’s crude imports reached a new record high in March, increasing by 889 tb/d, to average 9.2 mb/d, and remained higher from last year by a remarkable 1.5 mb/d. Y-t-d, the figures reflected an increase of 1.2 mb/d, or 16%.

In terms of crude oil suppliers’ shares, Russia, Angola and Saudi Arabia were the top suppliers to China in March, accounting for 12% each. Crude imports from Angola increased from a month before by 251 tb/d to average 1.1 mb/d. Imports from Saudi Arabia and Russia were lower from a month before by 172 tb/d and 14 tb/d, respectively. In March, China’s refinery runs showed a drop from the previous month due to scheduled refinery maintenance.

China’s product imports decreased by 84 tb/d and 72 tb/d from the previous month and previous year, respectively.

As a result, China’s net oil imports increased by 540 tb/d from the previous month and remained above last year’s level by 1.1 mb/d.

India
In March, India’s crude oil imports remained flat from the previous month, while y-o-y, they dropped by 79 tb/d, or 2%, to average 4.3 mb/d.

Product imports were generally stable from the previous month, averaging 917 tb/d in March.

India’s product exports rose from the previous month by 398 tb/d, or 31%, and were up by 309 tb/d y-o-y. In March, all products rose, particularly gasoil and naphtha.

Therefore, India’s net imports dropped by 378 tb/d to average 3.6 mb/d, down by 10% m-o-m and by 202 mb/d, or 5%, from the previous year.

FSU
In March, total crude oil exports from the former Soviet Union rose by 98 tb/d, or 1.4%, to average 6.9 mb/d. Similarly, total Russian crude exports increased by 112 tb/d, or 3%, to average 4.2 mb/d.

Total shipments from the Black Sea rose by 96 tb/d, or 18%, to average 614 tb/d in March. Total Baltic Sea exports rose by 25 tb/d in March as shipments from the UST Luga port terminal increased by 103 tb/d from the previous month, although the increase was offset by lower shipments from Primorsk port. The Druzhba pipeline’s total shipments went up slightly by 9 tb/d to average 953 tb/d, while Kozmino shipments were generally flat, averaging 604 tb/d.

Exports through the Lukoil system were lower from the previous month in the Barents Sea and Baltic Sea, down by 17 tb/d and 6 tb/d, respectively. The other routes showed mixed performances in March from a month before, as exports from the Mediterranean Sea dropped by 118 tb/d.

Looking at Asia, Russian Far East total exports were up slightly by 6 tb/d.

FSU total product exports increased by 110 tb/d, or 3.2%, from last month, to average 3.6 mb/d. This gain in came mainly as a result of higher exports of fuel oil and gasoil, which increased from the previous month by 168 tb/d and 115 tb/d, respectively.

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