ArcelorMittal (referred to as “ArcelorMittal” or the “Company” or the "Group") (MT (New York, Amsterdam, Paris, Luxembourg), MTS (Madrid)), the world’s leading integrated steel and mining company, today announced results1 for the three-month period ended March 31, 2024.
1Q 2024 key highlights:
Health and safety focus: Protecting employee health and wellbeing remains the overarching priority of the Company; the Company-wide audit of safety by dss+ is progressing and will support our pathway to zero serious injuries and fatalities; LTIF2 rate of 0.61x in 1Q 2024
Recovering volumes and higher steel spreads supporting improved results: Scope adjusted steel shipments17 increased +5.0% in 1Q 2024 vs. 4Q 2023; 1Q 2024 EBITDA14 of $2.0bn (vs. $1.5bn in 4Q 2023) with EBITDA/t of $145/t in 1Q 2024 (vs. $110/t in 4Q 2023). Net income of $0.9bn in 1Q 2024 vs. net loss of $3.0bn (adjusted net income of $1.0bn8) in 4Q 2023
Free cash flow impacted by seasonal working capital needs: a seasonal working capital investment ($1.7bn)22 together with capex ($1.2bn) in support of strategic growth projects19 led to a free cash outflow during the quarter of $1.4bn
Financial strength: Net debt of $4.8bn at the end of the quarter (gross debt of $10.2bn and cash and cash equivalents of $5.4bn)12 compares to a net debt of $2.9bn at December 31, 2023. Over the past 12 months net debt has declined by $0.4bn despite strategic growth capex investments of $1.6bn and returns to shareholders totaling $1.7bn25. This highlights the strong underlying cash generating capacity of the business
Key developments towards strategic objectives:
Organic growth: Capex in 1Q 2024 includes $0.4bn on strategic growth projects21, which are estimated to add approximately $1.8bn to the Company's EBITDA13 potential by the end of 2026; strategic projects to commence operations in 1H 2024 include Vega CMC (Brazil) and the 1GW renewables project in India; 2H 2024 projects include Calvert EAF (US), Serra Azul and Barra Mansa in Brazil, electrical steel in Europe and mine expansion in Liberia
Asset portfolio: The Company has agreed to acquire a 28% stake in Vallourec for ~$1.1bn, increasing its exposure to the downstream value-added tubular market; targeting premium segments in the America's market, including a focus on energy transition solutions (CCS and hydrogen); transaction closing is subject to regulatory approvals and currently expected in 2H 2024
Consistent shareholder returns: The Company has repurchased a further 22.5m shares10 in 1Q 2024, bringing the total reduction in diluted shares to 35% since September 30, 20207. This has contributed to an increase in the book value per share to $67/sh4 at the end of the quarter. The Company will continue to return a minimum 50% of post-dividend FCF to shareholders through its share buyback programs. The $0.50/sh base dividend for 2023 will be paid in 2 equal installments in June 2024 and December 2024
Commenting, Aditya Mittal, ArcelorMittal Chief Executive Officer, said:
“Across the Company our people are galvanized to improve safety performance. The 3rd party safety audit, which started at the end of December, is now well underway and on target to be completed in September. We expect this to make valuable recommendations that, combined with the considerable efforts already underway, will enable us to deliver the safety results we are striving for.
“On financial performance, the improved pricing environment combined with recovering volumes resulted in sequentially stronger quarterly results, which also now reflect the value contributed by our joint ventures.
“We have an exciting pipeline of growth projects underway, including the 1GW renewables project in India and Vega CMC in Brazil, both of which are expected to commence operations in the first half. Meanwhile the strategic stake in Vallourec will enhance our exposure to the attractive North American market in the value-added tubular market. We continue to progress with our decarbonization projects, conscious of the need to ensure these investments create value as well as reduce emissions.
“Maintaining our position as the lead supplier of low carbon steels is a clear priority and the planned ramp-up at Sestao, along with the new EAF in Gijon which will break ground imminently, will both have an important role to play. Meanwhile our XCarb® recycled and renewably produced steel will be on show to the world during the Paris Olympics, in both the Olympic and Paralympic torches and also the Spectacular which will be erected on the Eiffel Tower.
“Although overall economic sentiment remains subdued, we expect apparent steel demand ex-China to grow between +3% and +4% this year and are well positioned to benefit from this improvement.”
Safety and sustainable development
Health and safety
The Company- wide audit of safety by dss+ is progressing and will support our pathway to zero serious injuries and fatalities. The audit will encompass the three pillars of fatality prevention standards, process risk management and governance. Key updates on the progress of the audit include:
30% Fatality Prevention Standards (FPS) audit are complete of sites above 150 full time equivalents (employees and contractors). Audits cover the three main occupational risks (injured by a machine that was not properly isolated or turned off, crushed by vehicle or moving machine, and falling from height) leading to serious injuries and fatalities
47% of process safety risk management assessments are complete. dss+ will observe and assess our Group CTO led assessments of the highest priority countries and assets.
83% of interviews held as part of top-to-bottom health and safety governance review. dss+ will assess all health and safety systems, processes, structures and capabilities; governance and assurance processes and systems and data management.
Key recommendations are due to be published in September 2024 when the audit is complete.
Sustainable development highlights:
Progressing the engineering of our DRI/ EAF decarbonization projects, across Europe and Canada, which is expected to be completed by the end of this year. For these projects, the Company is also working with country governments to have visibility of the energy costs and capacity. At the same time, the Company is piloting CCS projects in Belgium and France. All the steps that the Company is taking today support our strategy to achieve competitive decarbonization, aiming for our technology choices at each asset to maximize our competitive advantage and deliver an acceptable return on investment.
In Brazil, ArcelorMittal and Petrobras have signed a memorandum of understanding to assess potential business models for low-carbon fuels, hydrogen and its products, renewable energy production and CCS (carbon capture and storage). This follows a joint study to develop a CCS hub in the state of Espirito Santo.
The Company has demonstrated the ability to produce a wide variety of different grades and types of XCarb® recycled and renewably produced11 products for a multitude of customer applications. Sales of our XCarb® product, which can have a carbon footprint of as low as 300kg CO2/t, reached 229kt in 2023, and are expected to more than double in 2024.
Analysis of results for 1Q 2024 versus 4Q 2023
Sales in 1Q 2024 were +11.9% higher at $16.3 billion as compared to $14.6 billion in 4Q 2023, reflecting higher average steel selling prices (+4.8%) and higher steel shipment volumes (+1.4%). On a scope adjusted basis (i.e. excluding Kazakhstan operations that were sold on December 7, 2023) 1Q 2024 steel shipments were +5.0% higher as compared to 4Q 2023.
The improvement in operating income in 1Q 2024 to $1.1 billion reflects higher steel shipments and a recovery in steel spreads (primarily due to an increase in steel prices).
EBITDA in 1Q 2024 increased by +34.6% to $1,956 million as compared to $1,454 million in 4Q 2023, primarily due to improved results in North America, Brazil, Europe and India and JVs offset by lower Mining segment results.
ArcelorMittal recorded net income in 1Q 2024 of $0.9 billion as compared to a net loss of $3.0 billion in 4Q 2023. This is lower than the adjusted net income8 of $1.0 billion in 4Q 2023 (which excludes the impacts of non-cash impairments and charges related to the sale of Kazakhstan operations) largely due to higher income tax expenses offset in part by the non-cash mark-to-market gain of $181 million on the Vallourec share price24.
ArcelorMittal's basic earnings per common share for 1Q 2024 was $1.16 as compared to a loss per common share of $3.57 in 4Q 2023 (adjusted basic earnings per common share8 of $1.18 in 4Q 2023).
Free cash outflow during 1Q 2024 of $1.4 billion22 was negatively impacted by a seasonal working capital investment of $1.7 billion together with capex of $1.2 billion in support of strategic growth projects19,20. This together with the $0.6 billion share buybacks offset in part by the sale of the 4.23% remaining stake in Erdemir (generating proceeds of $0.2 billion) mainly led to an increase in net debt to $4.8 billion at March 31, 2024 as compared to $2.9 billion at December 31, 2023. Over the past 12 months, net debt declined by $0.4 billion, despite a $1.6 billion investment in strategic growth capex and returns to shareholders totaling $1.7 billion during the period.
Sales in 1Q 2024 increased by +13.8% to $3.3 billion, as compared to $2.9 billion in 4Q 2023 primarily on account of higher average steel selling prices +9.9% and +8.0% increase in steel shipments, driven primarily by improved demand for flat products.
Operating income in 1Q 2024 increased by +108.9% to $585 million as compared to $280 million in 4Q 2023, due to a positive price-cost effect, primarily due to higher average steel selling prices and higher steel shipments.
EBITDA in 1Q 2024 of $705 million was +61.4% higher as compared to $437 million in 4Q 2023, due to a positive price-cost effect and higher steel shipments.
Brazil9
Sales in 1Q 2024 increased by +12.6% to $3.1 billion as compared to $2.7 billion in 4Q 2023, primarily due to a +4.0% increase in average steel selling prices and offset in part by -10.7% decline in steel shipments, impacted by shipment timing delays, a seasonal inventory build and lower domestic demand in Argentina. 4Q 2023 sales were impacted by translation impacts from the devaluation of the Argentinian peso.
Operating income in 1Q 2024 of $302 million was +76.7% higher as compared to $171 million in 4Q 2023, which had been impacted by the devaluation of the Argentinian peso.
EBITDA in 1Q 2024 increased by +59.8% to $396 million as compared to $248 million in 4Q 2023 mainly due to a positive price-cost effect (higher selling prices and lower costs), offset in part by lower steel shipments. 4Q 2023 was also negatively impacted by the devaluation of the Argentinian peso (approximately $80 million).
Europe
Sales in 1Q 2024 increased by +18.4% to $7.8 billion, as compared to $6.6 billion in 4Q 2023, primarily due to improved shipment volumes, following the end of destocking which impacted the prior quarter.
Operating income in 1Q 2024 was $69 million as compared to an operating loss of $4 million in 4Q 2023 primarily due to higher steel shipment volumes offset in part by higher costs.
EBITDA in 1Q 2024 of $343 million increased by +21.1% as compared to $283 million in 4Q 2023, mainly due to higher steel shipments offset in part by higher costs.
India and JVs
Income from associates, joint-ventures and other investments (excluding impairments and exceptional items, if any) for 1Q 2024 was higher at $242 million as compared to $188 million in 4Q 2023, primarily due to higher contributions from Calvert, European and American investees partially offset by the reduced income from AMNS India.
ArcelorMittal has investments in various joint ventures and associate entities globally. The Company considers Calvert (50% equity interest) and AMNS India (60% equity interest) joint ventures to be of particular strategic importance, warranting more detailed disclosures to improve the understanding of their operational performance and value to the Company.
AMNS India
AMNS India recorded 2.0Mt of crude steel production in 1Q 2024 reaching an 8.1Mt annual run-rate in March 2024 (close to 8.6Mt capacity debottlenecking target).
Record steel shipments in 1Q 2024 of 2.0Mt, an increase of +7.9% as compared to 4Q 2023, and includes higher exports.
EBITDA during 1Q 2024 declined by -37.5% to $312 million as compared to $499 million in 4Q 2023, driven by a negative price-cost effect including a lower impact from natural gas hedges, offset in part by higher shipments.
Calvert16
Calvert production in 1Q 2024 improved +15.6% following planned maintenance in 4Q 2023.
Calvert EBITDA during 1Q 2024 of $188 million represented a +109.1% increase as compared to $90 million in 4Q 2023 primarily due to higher average selling prices and an improved mix with higher share of automotive shipments.
Sustainable Solutions23
Sales in 1Q 2024 was higher at $2.9 billion as compared to $2.5 billion in 4Q 2023 due to higher activity levels.
Operating income in 1Q 2024 was higher at $26 million as compared to $15 million in 4Q 2023.
EBITDA in 1Q 2024 of $70 million was +31.8% higher as compared to $53 million in 4Q 2023, with improved margins in the Projects business and higher activity levels in Distribution & Service Centers, offset in part by a seasonally weaker Construction business.
Mining
Operating income in 1Q 2024 was -9.0% lower at $246 million as compared to $270 million in 4Q 2023 driven by lower iron ore reference prices and higher freight costs offset in part by higher iron ore shipments despite Liberia rail not operating at capacity.
EBITDA in 1Q 2024 of $311 million was -8.3% lower as compared to $339 million in 4Q 2023, due to lower iron ore reference prices (-3.8%) and higher freight costs offset in part by higher iron ore shipments.
Other recent developments
On April 22, 2024, ArcelorMittal Calvert, wholly owned by ArcelorMittal, announced that it is planning for an advanced manufacturing facility in Calvert, Alabama that could deliver 150,000 metric tons (Mt) of domestic production capacity of non-grain-oriented electrical steel (NOES) annually. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) defined electrical steel as a critical material for energy as part of its 2023 Critical Materials Assessment. In support of this clean energy project, ArcelorMittal Calvert has been awarded $280.5 million in investment tax credits from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) as part of the Qualifying Advanced Energy Project Credit (48C) program, funded by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA). The 48C program, which provides a tax credit of up to 30% for investments in advanced energy projects, is designed to support secure and resilient domestic clean energy supply chains.
On March 19, 2024, ArcelorMittal announced that Kleber Silva to be the new Chief Executive Officer of the Mining segment. Kleber is re-joining ArcelorMittal after leaving the group in 2017. Kleber has an extensive experience of 35 years in mining and metal industries, with great achievements in safety, value creation, growth, turnaround, and operational excellence. He began his career in 1988 at MBR and Vale. Since then, he has held various senior operation responsibilities within Eramet, Vale Brazil and at Québec Cartier Mining Company in Canada (later ArcelorMittal Mines Canada).
Outlook
Overall economic sentiment remains subdued with customers maintaining a “wait and see” approach with no restocking yet apparent. Nevertheless, sentiment appears to have reached a floor and given the low inventory environment (particularly Europe) as soon as real demand begins to gradually improve, apparent demand is expected to rebound. The Company continues to forecast World ex-China apparent steel consumption ("ASC") to grow +3.0% to +4.0% in 2024, including: +1.5% to +3.5% in US; +2.0% to +4.0% in Europe; +0.5% to +2.5% in Brazil and +6.5% to +8.5% in India.
The Company remains positive on the medium/long-term steel demand outlook and believes that it is optimally positioned to execute its strategy of growth with capital returns.
Capex in 2024 is expected to remain within the $4.5-$5.0 billion range (of which $1.4-$1.5 billion is expected as strategic growth capex).
