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FSU and Russia Oil Supply – December 2011

Source: OPEC 12/26/2011, Location: Asia

Total FSU oil supply is foreseen to increase by 70 tb/d in 2011 to average 13.30 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. Despite the steady situation, there were few upward and downward revisions among the group’s country supply profiles that offset each other. Russia, Kazakhstan and Other FSU remain as the drivers of growth in the FSU, while Azerbaijan supply is seen to decline in 2011. During the first three quarters of this year, FSU oil supply increased by 80 tb/d compared to the same period of 2010. On a quarterly basis, total FSU oil supply in 2011 is estimated to average 13.32 mb/d, 13.26 mb/d, 13.23 mb/d and 13.37 mb/d, respectively. China’s oil production is seen to increase by 30 tb/d in 2011 to average 4.15 mb/d. Other Europe oil supply is estimated to remain flat from 2010 and average 0.14 mb/d in 2011.

Russia’s oil supply is projected to increase by 0.12 mb/d in 2011 to average 10.26 mb/d, an upward revision of 10 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. Russia’s oil production in November was at the same level as the record-high figure achieved in October, according to preliminary data, which supported the upward revision. The encountered upward revision affected the fourth quarter as actual production data in October and November indicated higher-than-expected output. Furthermore, the startup of the Urengoi gas field, where gas and condensate output is expected to further enhance the growth, supported the upward revision.

So far in 2011, Russia’s oil supply has remained relatively strong as monthly production data reached new record highs on several occasions. The healthy price level supported operators to maintain and rampup output at mature producing areas, in addition to the new volume coming from green fields. On average, Russia’s oil supply increased by 120 tb/d during the first eleven months of 2011 compared to 2010. On a quarterly basis, Russian oil supply in 2011 is expected to average 10.21 mb/d, 10.23 mb/d, 10.28 mb/d and 10.33 mb/d, respectively. Russia’s oil production averaged 10.35 mb/d in November.

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