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FSU Oil Trade in October 2011

Source: OPEC 1/7/2012, Location: Asia

Total FSU crude exports edged down by 60 tb/d or 0.8% from September’s fivemonth high of 6.51 mb/d to 6.45 mb/d in October. The decline was mainly attributed to export reductions from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, while overall shipments through Russia’s Transneft pipeline system remained stable. Exports of Azeri crude using the Baku-Tbilisi Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline dropped to 676 tb/d or by 1.5% in October. Projections for the loading schedules indicate a further decline, due to the expected production reduction in Azerbaijan caused by field maintenance.

Exports of Kazakh crude to China through the Kenkiyak-Alashankou pipline fell by 75 tb/d or more than 30% in October. Exports of Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Blend through the CPC terminal at Novorossiysk were down by 25 tb/d to 628 tb/d. Black sea pipeline exports where down by 935 tb/d or 3.1% compared to the previous month, reflecting the reduced exports of Urals and lower transit supplies from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. The decline would have been bigger if not for increased supplies from Tuapse which compensated for the fall.

Shipments of Russian crude along the Druzhba pipeline dropped by 14 tb/d or 1.2%, after record high supplies during the previous month. Exports of ESPO Blend from Russia’s far east Kozmino terminal were down by 34 tb/d or 10.7% to a level of 284 tb/d in October, while direct pipeline exports to China were estimated at 313 tb/d, representing an increase of 5.7%. Exports of Sakhalin light sweet offshore grades Sokol and Viyaz were up for the second consecutive month, bringing overall exports from Russia’s far east to 296 tb/d. Crude exports from the Varandey terminal in northern Russia rose sharply in October to 138 tb/d from 53 tb/d the month before, due to the loading of accumulated oil at the port.

FSU product exports fell slightly in October by 0.6% to 2.46 mb/d compared to September. Maintenance at Russian refineries undermined exports of most products at the beginning of the month. In particular, supplies of 10ppm diesel have fallen because of maintenance at the Nizhny Novgorod, Ryazan and Yaroslavl refineries and higher domestic demand in Russia.

Fuel oil exports fell by around 5.3% compared to the month before and were also affected by a drop of supplies from the Kirishi and Moscow refineries. Jet exports dropped sharply by 12 tb/d to a level of 1.0 tb/d in October compared with 13 tb/d in September. This follows an acute shortage of the product at Russian airports in September and also reflects reduced output of the product by Russian refineries. Gasoline exports grew by 35 tb/d or around 33% to a level of 140 tb/d in October compared to the month before as domestic demand slackened.

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