Kazakhstan’s oil supply is believed to increase by 20 tb/d in 2012 to average 1.63 mb/d, representing a minor downward revision of 15 tb/d from last month. The revision has come on the back of Uzen field output coming below expectations on the back of bad weather during the first two months of 2012, as per preliminary data. The field’s supply is expected to increase by 15% in 2012 from the previous year, when output was curtailed due to strike action and power outages. The Tengiz project is anticipated to add new volumes in 2012 and support the country’s production. According to preliminary estimates, Kazakhstan’s oil supply increased by 60 tb/d from the previous month, supported by an increase of around 30 tb/d from the Tengiz development. On a quarterly basis, Kazakhstan’s supply is expected to stand at 1.64 mb/d, 1.61 mb/d, 1.61 mb/d and 1.64 mb/d respectively.
Azerbaijan’s oil supply is anticipated to remain steady in 2012, with a minor increase of 10 tb/d to average 0.97 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision has come on the back of updated production data from the fourth quarter of 2011. Production is expected to increase in the first quarter, compared with the fourth, when output was affected by maintenance. A malfunction during the maintenance caused a short shutdown of the Shah Deniz gas field platform in February. On a quarterly basis, Azerbaijan oil supply is estimated to average 0.97 mb/d, 0.95 mb/d, 0.96 mb/d and 0.98 mb/d respectively.
China’s oil supply is expected to increase by 40 tb/d in 2012 to average 4.17 mb/d in 2012, indicating a minor downward revision of around 5 tb/d from the previous assessment. This revision has come about due to a historical adjustment that has affected the fourth quarter of 2011’s supply figures. The restart of the offshore Peng Lai field, which is unclear yet, will largely influence China’s oil supply, depending on when output will resume. On a quarterly basis, China’s oil supply is seen to average 4.12 mb/d, 4.13 mb/d, 4.17 mb/d and 4.25 mb/d respectively. According to the preliminary estimate, this averaged 4.15 mb/d in January, a decline of 0.10 mb/d, compared with the same month of 2011.