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China Oil Demand in April 2012

Source: OPEC 5/1/2012, Location: Asia

China has been floating domestic oil product prices to some degree, using a certain formula, and this mechanism has exposed end-users to international oil prices. However, this does not apply to all products and the government tends to delay increases to avoid high inflation. China has been importing a significant amount of oil in the past two months. This has mostly ended up in storage. The country’s monthly oil imports rose by 18.6% in February y-o-y. In February alone, China stored 0.8 mb/d of crude and products.

This stockpiling has been seen since November. On average, China stored 0.56 mb/d, or 68 mb, of oil over the past four months. Almost 57% of the stored oil is diesel. Based on our methodology, stored oil is not counted as part of the country’s consumption. Hence, China’s oil demand growth for February is forecast at 0.67 mb/d y-o-y, averaging 9.7 mb/d.

The country’s oil demand for the year is forecast to grow by 0.4 mb/d, or 4.2%. This trend is similar to what has been seen over the past few years.Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that the country’s automobile sales rebounded by a strong 26.5% in February, following a huge decline in January, which has been affected by the week-long Lunar New Year holiday. In the first two months of 2012, Chinese auto sales fell by 4.4% as a result of not only the holiday, but also the slowing economy, increasing fuel prices and government moves towards curbing GDP growth.

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Related Articles: Accounting, Statistics  Acquisitions and Divestitures  Asset Portfolio Management  Economics/Financial Analysis  General  Insurance  Investment  Mergers and Acquisitions  Risk Management 


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