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Caspian and China Oil Supply – May 2012

Source: OPEC 6/4/2012, Location: Asia

Oil production from Kazakhstan is forecast to average 1.62 mb/d in 2012, an increase of 20 tb/d over the previous year and showing a minor downward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision has come across the entire year, as updated production data in the first quarter led to the undertaken adjustment, which has been partly carried over to the rest of the year.

Updated data for the first quarter indicated slightly lower output than had been expected. Output was shut down at different fields, due to severe weather conditions. A state producer warned of output targets not being met in 2012, citing bad weather conditions that reduced production. On a quarterly basis, Kazakhstan’s supply is expected to stand at 1.62 mb/d, 1.60 mb/d, 1.61 mb/d and 1.65 mb/d respectively. According to the preliminary data, during the first quarter of 2012, Kazakh oil production decreased by 40 tb/d, compared with the same period in 2011.

Azerbaijan’s oil supply is forecast to average 0.97 mb/d in 2012, a minor increase of 10 tb/d over 2011 and unchanged from the previous month. According to preliminary data, Azeri oil supply declined by 50 tb/d in the first quarter, compared with the same period a year ago. This decline has been driven by technical issues that had an impact on the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) field’s output, which had affected production in previous years. Limited new developments have also influenced the forecast for 2012.

On a quarterly basis, Azerbaijan’s output is estimated to average 0.97 mb/d, 0.95 mb/d, 0.96 mb/d and 0.98 mb/d respectively. Turkmenistan’s oil supply is expected to increase in 2012 and help offset the decline from mature production in the Other FSU (not including Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan). Growth is supported by increased output from the Dzheitune field. Other FSU production is expected to average 0.45 mb/d in 2012, an increase of 10 tb/d from the previous year.

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