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FSU and Russia Oil Supply – May 2012

Source: OPEC 6/5/2012, Location: Asia

Total FSU oil production is expected to increase by 0.12 mb/d to 13.37 mb/d in 2012, indicating a downward revision of 20 tb/d from the last MOMR. This revision adjusts for preliminary production data for the first quarter, which was carried over to the rest of the year, as well as changes to individual countries’ supply profiles. It has affected the supply forecasts of Russia and Kazakhstan.

The FSU’s forecast supply growth is the third-largest among all the non-OPEC regions, following North America and Latin America in 2012. For the first quarter of the year, preliminary data indicates that the FSU’s oil supply increased by 60 tb/d, compared with the same period of 2011. On a quarterly basis, total supply is expected to stand at 13.38 mb/d, 13.31 mb/d, 13.36 mb/d and 13.44 mb/d respectively. Other Europe’s supply is anticipated to increase by 10 tb/d to average 0.14 mb/d in 2012, unchanged from the previous month, and China’s supply is forecast to rise by 80 tb/d over a year earlier to average 4.22 mb/d.

Russian oil supply is forecast to grow by 70 tb/d to average 10.34 mb/d in 2012, indicating a minor downward revision of 10 tb/d, compared with the previous month. This revision partly reflects updated production data in the first quarter, as well as reported revisions to the Prirazlom field, where output was expected to start in 2012. However, recent reports suggest that the Prirazlom oil project will not start this year.

According to preliminary data, Russia’s oil supply experienced a gradual decline during the first four months; yet the month-on-month drop was very small to assume a declining trend for the rest of the year. However, with the delayed start-up of the Prirazlom field and smaller additions from the Vankor project, a mature oil production decline could have an impact on Russian production towards the end of this year.

On the other hand, the start-up of the West Siberian field Samburg, with around 30 tb/d of new barrels expected this year, is seen to support growth in 2012. Moreover, the recently announced tax-breaks for offshore development are expected to support investment in the coming period. On a quarterly basis, Russian oil supply is seen to average 10.34 mb/d, 10.32 mb/d, 10.34 mb/d and 10.36 mb/d respectively. In April, it averaged 10.31 mb/d, a decrease of around 30 tb/d from the previous month, and growth of 80 tb/d compared with the same period of 2011, according to preliminary data.

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