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Caspian and China Oil Supply – July 2012

Source: OPEC 7/30/2012, Location: Asia

Kazakhstan’s production is expected to average 1.72 mb/d in 2013, indicating an increase of 0.10 mb/d over the previous year. This is supported mainly by the start-up of the Kashagan project. The first phase of this project, with a peak output of 0.35 mb/d, is expected to add new volumes in the second quarter of 2013 and it will feature rampups in the following years. It has encountered, however, various delays and costoverruns. Output from other fields is expected to remain relatively steady, with only minor declines.

The risk to the outlook for Kazakhstan’s oil supply is high, on the possibility of delays and political and technical issues. On a quarterly basis, Kazakhstan’s supply in 2013 is expected to stand at 1.66 mb/d, 1.67 mb/d, 1.73 mb/d and 1.82 mb/d respectively. Azerbaijan’s oil supply is estimated to average 0.96 mb/d in 2013, flat from this year.

This is driven by the limited new developments. The operator of the Azeri-Chirag- Guneshli (ACG) projects has reported that the output plateau will be maintained at 750 tb/d in the coming years without major additions, and this is lower than the previous target, in order to sustain the level for a longer period. Azerbaijan’s forecast for 2013 is associated with a high risk, on the back of technical issues. On a quarterly basis, Azerbaijan’s supply in 2013 is estimated to average 0.98 mb/d, 0.95 mb/d, 0.95 mb/d and 0.97 mb/d respectively. Oil supply for ‘FSU Others’ is projected to average 0.47 mb/d in 2013, an increase of 20 tb/d over this year.

This is supported by Turkmenistan’s and Uzbekistan’s output from the Dzheitune, Ustyurt and Mingbulak projects. Natural declines in mature producing areas are expected to offset part of the growth in 2013.

China’s oil production is projected to grow by 60 tb/d in 2013 to average 4.28 mb/d. This is supported by the start-ups and ramp-ups of different projects, such as Beibu Gulf WZ 6-12 and WZ-12-8, Nanpu and Tarim Expansion. An assumption that the Penglai field will return to full volume supports the expected growth in 2013. Risks to the forecast remain associated with technical and delay issues, as well as decline rate development. On a quarterly basis, oil supply in China in 2013 is expected to stand at 4.30 mb/d, 4.27 mb/d, 4.26 mb/d and 4.28 mb/d respectively.

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