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Caspian and China Oil Supply – September 2012

Source: OPEC 9/26/2012, Location: Asia

Kazakhstan oil supply is estimated to increase by 10 tb/d in 2012 to average 1.61 mb/d, unchanged from the last MOMR. The Tengiz oil field’s output was curtailed due to maintenance in August and output is expected to increase in September as work has come to an end. However, some production is expected to be shut down at Karachaganak in September as it goes into maintenance. Kazakh oil supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter on lower impact from outages. During the first seven months, Kazakhstan oil production averaged 1.60 mb/d, relatively flat compared to the same period in 2011. On a quarterly basis, Kazakhstan oil supply is estimated to average 1.62 mb/d, 1.57 mb/d, 1.61 mb/d, and 1.65 mb/d, respectively.

Azerbaijan oil production is predicted to remain steady in 2012 and average 0.96 mb/d, flat compared to the previous month. So far in 2012, Azeri oil supply remained subdued on limited new developments and technical issues. During the first half of 2012, Azerbaijan oil supply averaged 0.94 mb/d, a decline of 60 tb/d compared to the same period a year earlier. Production in the second half of 2012 is seen increasing compared to the first half. On a quarterly basis, Azerbaijan oil supply is seen to average 0.96 mb/d, 0.92 mb/d, 0.96 mb/d, and 0.99 mb/d, respectively. Other FSU oil supply is expected to average 0.44 mb/d in 2012, an increase of 20 tb/d compared to the previous year, unchanged from the last MOMR. The growth is supported by the increased output from Turkmenistan.

Oil supply from China is seen to grow by 80 tb/d in 2012 to average 4.21 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month. The steady state came despite lower output in June and July; however, the expectation of higher output in the coming months offset the experienced decline. Output at the Tarim oil field was down during the first half of 2012 compared to the same period a year earlier. On the other hand, Lufeng 13-2 oil field output has doubled to 27 tb/d since the beginning of the year. During the first seven months of 2012, China oil supply averaged 4.15 mb/d, a decline of 40 tb/d compared to the same period a year earlier. According to the preliminary data, China oil supply declined slightly in July compared to the previous month and by 40 tb/d compared to the same month a year ago. On a quarterly basis, China oil supply is seen to average 4.16 mb/d, 4.16 mb/d, 4.22 mb/d, and 4.30 mb/d, respectively.

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