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India & Indonesia Oil Demand in September 2012

Source: OPEC 9/29/2012, Location: Asia

The effect of India’s total massive power shut-down has been seen in the country’s diesel demand. The country’s effort to keep up with summer heat, along with excessive uploads to the electricity line, has crippled the entire system on several occasions. The fall of the grid left 600 million people without electricity. This has led to the use of independent diesel-operated power generation. As a result, diesel usage increased massively by 13% in July, adding another 0.17 mb/d to the country’s total diesel use. Diesel consumption in India is attributed to transportation, industry and agricultural sectors. In general, like the rest of Asia, the summer is high season for oil consumption in India. Despite fuel switching to gas in some of the country’s industrial and power plants, India’s oil demand grew by a strong 9.4% or 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in July.

According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), domestic passenger car sales increased robustly for another month by 11% during July. Sales were boosted mainly by growth in utility vehicle sales (57.4%), denoting the highest monthly growth in two-and-half years. Since utility vehicles are diesel driven, it is one of the significant indicators that the number of diesel vehicles on the road is on the rise.

Indonesian oil demand grew by 3.1% in June y-o-y adding another 40 tb/d to the country’s total oil demand. This came about despite the decline in both diesel and fuel oil use. Gasoline demand inched up by 10.2 % in June, leading to a total consumption of half a million barrels. As for the entire year, Indonesia will consume 1.4 mb/d, denoting growth of 22 tb/d. Taiwan oil demand has been on the decline since the fourth quarter of 2010. There were only a few months where consumption showed an increase; other than that, economic activities are suppressing the use of oil in the industrial sector. In the first six months of the year, Taiwan oil demand slid by 12.4% y-o y. Most of the decline was related to less use of fuel oil. Given the strong oil demand by India, Other Asia’s oil demand growth is estimated at 0.22 mb/d y-o-y in 2012.

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