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Caspian and China Oil Supply – November 2012

Source: OPEC 11/29/2012, Location: Asia

Kazakhstan’s oil supply is seen to fall by 20 tb/d in 2012 to average 1.58 mb/d, flat from the previous MOMR. The fall is expected on limited new developments, declines in mature producing areas and the impact of maintenance. During the third quarter, Kazakhstan’s supply averaged 1.52 mb/d, a decline of 20 tb/d, compared with the same quarter in 2011. Tengiz oil field maintenance during the third quarter was the main cause of the lower production. Kazakhstan’s supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter as the field returns to normal production levels. During the first three quarters of 2012, the country’s production decreased by 30 tb/d on average, compared with the same period of 2011.

On a quarterly basis, supply is estimated to average 1.62 mb/d, 1.57 mb/d, 1.52 mb/d and 1.62 mb/d respectively. Azerbaijan’s oil supply is expected to decline by 20 tb/d in 2012 to average 0.94 mb/d, unchanged from last month. During the first three quarters of 2012, it dropped by 60 tb/d, compared with the same period a year earlier. Output is expected to increase during the fourth quarter. However, the possibilities of production remaining at the same level as the third quarter exist and could lead to a further downward revision to Azerbaijan’s 2012 supply in the coming month. So far in 2012, Azeri Chirag-Guneshli field production has declined, with major output decreases coming from the West Azeri, East Azeri, deep-water Guneshli and Chirag areas. On a quarterly basis, Azerbaijan’s output is expected to stand at 0.96 mb/d, 0.92 mb/d, 0.91 mb/d and 0.96 mb/d respectively.

China’s oil production is expected to increase by 80 tb/d in 2012 to average 4.20 mb/d, which would be an upward revision of 10 tb/d from last month. This revision was introduced to the third quarter, as updated production data indicated higher output than had been expected. Furthermore, the start-ups of new small projects in the South China Sea supported the upward revision. Also, reports suggested the return of some volumes from the shutdown Peng Lai field, and this supported the upward revision. According to preliminary data, China’s production during the third quarter saw an increase of 40 tb/d from the second quarter and a rise of 0.16 mb/d, compared with the same quarter a year earlier, mainly from offshore production. During the first three quarters of 2012, China’s supply increased by 30 tb/d, compared with the same period of the previous year. On a quarterly basis, supply is estimated to average 4.16 mb/d, 4.16 mb/d, 4.20 mb/d and 4.27 mb/d respectively.

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