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Canada and Mexico Oil Supply – December 2012

Source: OPEC 12/17/2012, Location: North America

Canada’s oil output is expected to grow by 0.19 mb/d in 2012 to average 3.75 mb/d, constituting a downward revision of 40 t/d from the previous MOMR. This revision came about in the second half, due to updated production data for the third quarter. Reduced output from the Horizon project, on the back of maintenance, partly influenced the revision. Despite this revision, which was partly carried over to the fourth quarter, Canada’s supply growth remained the second largest among all the non-OPEC countries.

The country’s output is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter, compared with the third, as eastern offshore fields White Rose and Terra Nova return from maintenance. In addition, the ramp-up of the Firebag field is seen to support the growth. Canada’s supply growth in 2012 has been driven by oil sand output growth, as well as by crude from shale developments in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. During the first three quarters, Canada’s supply averaged 3.72 mb/d, an increase of 0.23 mb/d from the same period a year earlier. On a quarterly basis, its production in 2012 is estimated to stand at 3.81 mb/d, 3.68 mb/d, 3.68 mb/d and 3.83 mb/d respectively.

Mexico’s oil supply is seen to average 2.92 mb/d in 2012, denoting a decline of 20 tb/d from 2011 and a minor upward revision of 5 tb/d from the previous MOMR. The minor upward revision came about as Mexico’s output during the early parts of the fourth quarter was at a slightly higher level than expected. In October, Mexico’s supply reached its lowest level in 2012 and averaged 2.88 mb/d, after remaining relatively steady at above 2.90 mb/d during the first nine months of the year. However, updated production data showed that output had returned to the normal level for 2012 in the early part of November. Accordingly, a minor upward revision was introduced to adjust for the updated production data. During the first three quarters, Mexico’s supply averaged 2.92 mb/d, a decline of 20 tb/d from the same period of 2011.

The national operator reported that, in 2013, Mexico’s supply will experience some growth. The relatively stable level of production in 2012, compared with the previous year, could support the operator’s prediction. Moreover, the operator will soon tender six blocks in the Chicontepec region under the performance contract system, which could support future supply. On a quarterly basis, Mexico’s production in 2012 is seen to average 2.92 mb/d, 2.93 mb/d, 2.92 mb/d and 2.91 mb/d respectively.

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