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Asia Oil Supply – December 2012

Source: OPEC 12/28/2012, Location: Asia

Asia’s oil supply is expected to average 3.61 mb/d in 2012, the lowest annual level since 1994 and depicting a decline of 20 tb/d from the previous year, albeit unchanged from the previous month. Among the region’s countries, only Vietnam’s, Thailand’s and Malaysia’s oil supply is expected to increase in 2012, while the rest of the countries are seen to decline. Despite this steady state, there have been a few downward and upward revisions that have offset each other. India’s supply is expected to decrease by 10 tb/d in 2012 to average 0.88 mb/d, a downward revision of 5 tb/d from the previous MOMR.

This revision came in the fourth quarter, due to updated production data for the early part of the quarter. During the first three quarters of this year, Other Asia’s production dropped by 20 tb/d from the same period in 2011. On a quarterly basis, its supply in 2012 is expected to average 3.65 mb/d, 3.56 mb/d, 3.59 mb/d and 3.64 mb/d respectively.

Indonesia’s oil supply is expected to decline by 60 tb/d in 2012 to average 0.96 mb/d, denoting a downward revision of 5 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision came on the back of updated production data that affected the early part of the fourth quarter. It happened despite the start-up of the South Mahakam gas project, which is seen as adding some liquid volume. In addition, the operator of the Cepu project indicated that production would reach a peak of 165 tb/d in the second half of 2014.

The field’s current output is estimated at 25 tb/d, and local opposition to the development’s plan is seen to limit the field’s growth. Malaysia’s supply is estimate to average 0.65 mb/d in 2012, an increase of 10 tb/d from the previous year and an upward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This upward revision was supported by the start-up of the Gumusut-Kakap field, with an initial output of 25 tb/d and the expectation of a peak of 130 tb/d, as reported by the operator. In addition, the start-up of the Berantai gas project supported the upward revision, as a small quantity of liquid is expected to support the country’s supply.

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