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FSU and Russia Oil Supply – December 2012

Source: OPEC 1/9/2013, Location: Asia

Total FSU oil supply is estimate to increase by 70 tb/d in 2012 to average 13.31 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. Despite this steady situation, there were a few upward and downward revisions among the group’s country supply profiles that offset each other. Russia and Other FSU remain as the drivers of growth in the FSU, while Azerbaijan’s and Kazakhstan’s supply is seen to decline in 2012. During the first three quarters of this year, FSU supply increased by 20 tb/d from the same period of 2011. On a quarterly basis, total FSU supply in 2012 is estimated to average 13.36 mb/d, 13.25 mb/d, 13.19 mb/d and 13.43 mb/d respectively. China’s production is expected to increase by 80 tb/d in 2012 to average 4.20 mb/d. Other Europe’s supply is estimated to remain flat from 2011 and average 0.14 mb/d in 2012.

Russia’s oil supply is anticipated to increase by 0.10 mb/d in 2012 to average 10.37 mb/d, an upward revision of 15 tb/d from the previous MOMR. Production reached a fourth consecutive monthly record in November as per preliminary data, and this required the revision. The revision affected the fourth quarter, with current production data for October and November detecting higher-than-expected output. The healthy output levels in October and November came on the back of continued rampups of the Vankor, Talakan and Verkhnechnoskoye developments, among others. During the first 11 months of 2012, Russia’s supply has increased by 0.10 mb/d from the same period a year earlier. The healthy price level supported operators in maintaining and ramping up output in mature producing areas, in addition to the new volumes coming from green fields. On a quarterly basis, Russian supply in 2012 is expected to average 10.34 mb/d, 10.32 mb/d, 10.36 mb/d and 10.45 mb/d respectively. Its production averaged 10.49 mb/d in November, an increase of 40 tb/d from October, according to preliminary data.

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