Balance of Supply and Demand - Mar 13

Source: OPEC_RP130312 3/12/2013, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2012
Demand for OPEC crude in 2012 remained unchanged from the previous report as demand and non-OPEC supply saw only a minor adjustment. However, within the quarters, 4Q12 saw a downward revision of almost 0.3 mb/d, reflecting a downward adjustment to demand combined with the upward revision in non-OPEC supply as actual data has become available. The second quarter saw an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d, while 1Q12 and 3Q12 remained unchanged from the previous assessment.

The demand for OPEC crude stood at 30.1 mb/d in 2012, representing a decrease of 0.1 mb/d from a year ago. 1Q12 is estimated to decline by 0.5 mb/d versus the same quarter last year; 2Q12 is estimated to increase by 0.5 mb/d, while the 3Q12 and 4Q12 showed a decline of 0.3 mb/d compared with the same quarters of 2011.

Forecast for 2013
Demand for OPEC crude for 2013 has been revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous report to stand at 29.7 mb/d. This represents a contraction of 0.4 mb/d compared with a year earlier. The downward revision came from an upward adjustment in non-OPEC supply as demand remained almost unchanged.

Within the quarters, 1Q13 and 2Q13 saw a downward adjustment of 0.1 mb/d, while 3Q13 and 4Q13 remained unchanged from the previous assessment. The first quarter is estimated to remain unchanged versus the same quarter last year; while 2Q13 and 3Q13 are expected to see negative growth of 0.8 mb/d each. The fourth quarter is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d versus the same quarter last year.


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