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Canada and Mexico Oil Supply – March 2013

Source: OPEC 3/21/2013, Location: North America

Canada’s oil production is anticipated to average 3.96 mb/d in 2013, an increase of 0.19 mb/d from the previous year and representing an upward revision of 35 tb/d from the previous MOMR. The upward revision was introduced partly to adjust for updated production data in the fourth quarter of 2012, as well as to accommodate other changes in the supply profile. The upward revision affects all quarters of 2013.

Additionally, the return of some volumes from Terra Nova after prolonged maintenance in February supported the upward revision, despite the delays in returning to full volumes, which is expected in the third quarter due to technical reasons. Canadian supply is to increase gradually in 2013, supported by crude oil and oil sand developments. Tight oil supply growth from Manitoba is also seen to support growth in 2013. The risk level linked to Canada’s supply forecast is high on technical, environmental and price-related grounds. On a quarterly basis, Canada’s production is seen to average 3.88 mb/d, 3.92 mb/d, 3.97 mb/d and 4.07 mb/d respectively.

Mexico’s oil supply is forecast to drop by 50 tb/d in 2013 to average 2.87 mb/d, although this would be an upward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous month. This revision was introduced on the back of updated production data in the early part of 2013, which indicated higher output than had been expected. Additionally, the national operator provided that oil production would rise in 2013, which supported the upward revision.

Furthermore, the Ku-Maloob-Zaap fieldreached a plateau of 865 tb/d in late- 2012 and this level is expected to be maintained in 2013. Furthermore, the new volumes coming from the Kuil and Tsimin fields are seen to support output and offset declines in mature fields. A drop in Mexico’s supply is expected in 2013, on the back of a production decline in mature areas and limited new developments. A moderate level of risk is coupled with Mexico’s supply forecast, mainly on weather and decline rate factors. On a quarterly basis, Mexico’s supply is seen to average 2.91 mb/d, 2.87 mb/d, 2.87 mb/d and 2.85 mb/d respectively.

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