Africa Oil Supply - March 2013

Africa’s oil supply is forecast to remain relatively steady in 2013, with a minor increase of 20 tb/d, to average 2.33 mb/d, depicting a downward revision of 45 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision affected South Sudan and Sudan’s oil supply forecast. Their production is forecast to increase by 50 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.17 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 45 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision was driven by the continued halt in South Sudan’s production, as the two nations are yet to implement the reached agreement on oil exports.

Limited production data and uncertainty regarding the restart of production point to a high risk level for the supply projection for 2013. For the time being, a partial return to production is assumed for the second quarter, which might need an adjustment to the figure as the year progresses. Equatorial Guinea’s supply is expected to decline by 10 tb/d in 2013 and average 0.31 mb/d. This fall has been anticipated despite the expected start-up of the Alen field, which is seen to add some volumes and help offset the declines in mature areas. On a quarterly basis, Africa’s supply is expected to stand at 2.27 mb/d, 2.31 mb/d, 2.37 mb/d and 2.39 mb/d respectively.