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Caspian and China Oil Supply – April 2013

Source: OPEC 5/10/2013, Location: Asia

Kazakhstan’s oil output is expected to increase by 80 tb/d to average 1.67 mb/d in 2013, indicating an upward revision of 15 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision came on the back of updated production figures in the early parts of the first quarter which turned out to be higher than expected.

It was partly carried over to the rest of the year. The main driver of growth in 2013 will be the start-up of the Kashagan field, which is expected in the middle of the year. Recently, the government announced an increase in export taxes which some analysts expect to have an impact on the investment atmosphere in Kazakhstan. According to preliminary data, Kazakhstan’s supply rose by 50 tb/d on average during January and February, compared with the same period last year. On a quarterly basis, it is expected to average 1.65 mb/d, 1.62 mb/d, 1.66 mb/d and 1.74 mb/d respectively.

Azerbaijan’s oil supply is projected to decline by 50 tb/d to average 0.85 mb/d in 2013, unchanged from the previous report. The expected output drop is seen on the back of a natural decline in the Azeri–Chirag–Guneshli (ACG) field, with limited new developments. This field’s output dropped to 665 tb/d in 2012 from 720 tb/d in 2011. The Azeri government indicated that the country’s output would decline in 2013 to yet a lower level than in 2012. On a quarterly basis, Azerbaijan’s supply is seen to average 0.88 mb/d, 0.84 mb/d, 0.84 mb/d and 0.85 mb/d respectively. According to preliminary data, it declined by 90 tb/d in January from the same period last year.

China’s oil production is seen to increase by 50 tb/d in 2013 to average 4.25 mb/d, indicating a downward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous month. This revision came on the back of adjustments to current production data in the early parts of the first quarter. It took place despite the start-up of the Beibu Gulf project, which is expected to peak at 15 tb/d. China’s supply declined in January and February on a monthly basis. The decline came mainly from the offshore oil production, which averaged 730 tb/d in February, compared with 890 tb/d in December. In February, China’s production averaged 4.22 mb/d, slightly lower than in the previous month and indicating growth of 40 tb/d, compared with the same month a year earlier. On a quarterly basis, China’s supply is seen to average 4.26 mb/d, 4.21 mb/d, 4.24 mb/d and 4.29 mb/d respectively.

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