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Asia Oil Supply – April 2013

Source: OPEC 5/12/2013, Location: Asia

Asia’s oil production is expected to remain steady in 2013, compared with last year, with a minor increase of 30 tb/d to average 3.65 mb/d, representing an upward revision of 25 tb/d from the previous MOMR. There were minor upward revisions that affected firstquarter supply and were carried over to the rest of the quarters. Malaysia’s supply forecast was revised up by 15 tb/d.

This revision came on the back of updated production data in the early part of the first quarter that was carried over to the rest of the year. The country’s supply is expected to increase by 60 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.72 mb/d. This growth is supported by the Gumusut field ramp-up. Thailand’s supply saw a minor upward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous month on updated production data. It is seen to average 0.35 mb/d in 2013, steady from the previous year. On a quarterly basis, Other Asia’s supply is forecast at 3.63 mb/d, 3.63 mb/d, 3.66 mb/d and 3.67 mb/d respectively.

India’s oil supply is forecast to remain steady in 2013 and average 0.87 mb/d, unchanged from the previous MOMR. This steady state is expected as the new volumes from the recently started-up Aishwariya field, part of the Mangala project in Rajasthan, are seen to offset anticipated natural declines. This field’s output is expected to peak at 10 tb/d in 2013. Indonesia’s oil supply is seen to decline by 50 tb/d in 2013 on the back of limited new developments and declines in mature producing areas.

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