OECD Asia Pacific supply is foreseen to decline by 30 tb/d to average 0.50 mb/d in 2013, indicating a downward revision of 20 tb/d compared to the previous month. The downward revision came on the back of updated production data. On a quarterly basis, OECD Asia Pacific supply is expected to average 0.45 mb/d, 0.49 mb/d, 0.51 mb/d and 0.53 mb/d respectively.
Oil supply from Australia is predicted to decline by 20 tb/d and average 0.42 mb/d in 2013, a downward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR. The downward revision came on the back of updated production data in the first quarter that was partially carried over to the rest of the year. The startup of the relatively small Hanson fields did not have a large impact on the forecast. According to preliminary and estimated data, Australia’s first quarter oil production averaged 0.36 mb/d, the lowest level since the fourth quarter 1972, a decline of 70 tb/d compared to the same period a year earlier.
The low output was partially driven by the impact of the cyclone season, which also influenced the progress of bringing in new supply. However, output is seen to rebound in the coming quarter as new projects such as Montara are expected to start up. On a quarterly basis, Australian supply is expected to average 0.36 mb/d, 0.42 mb/d, 0.44 mb/d and 0.46 mb/d respectively.