Africa’s oil supply is forecast to increase by 70 tb/d to average 2.38 mb/d in 2013, representing an upward revision of 15 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision has come from South Sudan and Sudan and Ghana, while the supply outlook for Gabon experienced a downward revision and the other producers forecast remains steady from a month earlier.
South Sudan restarted production in April from Thar Jath field and production is expected to ramp-up slowly to pre-shutdown level. Security concerns remain a major risk factor for return of the halted output. South Sudan and Sudan oil production is expected to increase gradually in 2013 and average 0.19 mb/d, an increase of 80 tb/d from previous year, indicating an upward revision of 15 tb/d compared to previous MOMR.
Ghana’s oil supply encountered an upward revision of 10 tb/d compared to last month on updated production data that came higher than expected. The Jubilee field is reported to produce near peak output of 120 tb/d. Gabon oil supply experienced a minor downward revision on updated production data for the first quarter. On a quarterly basis, Africa oil supply is seen to average 2.32 mb/d, 2.33 mb/d, 2.42 mb/d and 2.45 mb/d respectively.