Canada and Mexico Oil Supply – June 2013

Source: OPEC 6/26/2013, Location: North America

Canada’s oil supply is forecast to increase by 0.24 mb/d over 2012 to average 4.01 mb/d in 2013, indicating a downward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR. The expected growth in 2013 is the highest since 1973 and the average is the highest in record. This revision has come about on the back of a maintenance programme in the second quarter that is expected to impact production. However, Canada’s oil supply is seen to achieve the second highest growth in 2013 among all non-OPEC countries. The growth is supported by the projected increase from oil sands as well as tight oil production. On a quarterly basis, Canada’s production is seen to average 4.02 mb/d, 3.88 mb/d, 4.02 mb/d and 4.12 mb/d, respectively.

Mexico’s oil supply is projected to decline by 40 tb/d from 2012 to average 2.88 mb/d in 2013, unchanged from the previous assessment. This steady state has come about as April’s output was relatively steady from the previous month. In April and part of May, reports suggest that supply from the Cantarell and Chicontepec fields were in slight gradual decline while output from the Ku-Maloop-Zaap increased. Supply is expected to remain relatively steady in 2013, as production stabilization efforts seem to be having positive results. However, risks and uncertainties remain high, especially related to natural declines. On the other hand, the national operator informed that Chicontepec field spending will be reduced in 2013 and diverted to other areas in order to improve output. During the first four months of 2013, Mexico’s oil supply fell by around 30 tb/d from the same period a year ago. On a quarterly basis, it is expected to average 2.91 mb/d, 2.89 mb/d, 2.88 mb/d and 2.86 mb/d, respectively.

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