FSU and Russia Oil Supply – June 2013

Source: OPEC 7/3/2013, Location: Asia

Total FSU oil supply is projected to average 13.42 mb/d in 2013, representing growth of 0.12 mb/d over 2012 and an upward revision of 20 tb/d from last month. This revision is due to changes to Russia and Kazakhstan supply forecasts on the back of updated production data. In terms of volume, the FSU remains the region with the second-highest supply after OECD Americas.

The expected growth in 2013 supply is supported by Russia and Kazakhstan while Azerbaijan is seen to decline. On a quarterly basis, total supply from the FSU is expected to stand at 13.44 mb/d, 13.38 mb/d, 13.38 mb/d and 13.49 mb/d, respectively. Other Europe’s supply is seen to remain steady in 2013 and average 0.14 mb/d. China’s oil supply is forecast to increase by 70 tb/d over the previous year to average 4.26 mb/d in 2013.

Russia’s oil supply is projected to average 10.45 mb/d in 2013, an increase of 70 tb/d over 2012, indicating an upward revision of 10 tb/d from last month’s report and the highest since 1989. The upward revision came in the 2Q to adjust for updated production data that was carried over to the rest of the year. Russia oil supply in May, as per preliminary data, reached the highest level so far in 2013, with a minor increase from the previous month. Russian oil production maintained a healthy level, supported by the ramp-up of the Vankor project and stabilization in mature producing areas. On a quarterly basis, supply is estimated at 10.45 mb/d, 10.45 mb/d, 10.44 mb/d and 10.44 mb/d, respectively. According to preliminary data, Russia oil output averaged 10.46 mb/d in May, slightly higher than in the previous month. Russia oil supply in January-May grew by 120 tb/d, compared with the same period of 2012.

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