Developing countries’ (DC) total oil supply is projected to increase by 0.15 mb/d from 2012 to average 12.29 mb/d in 2013, indicating a downward revision of 55 tb/d from the previous month. The downward revisions have affected all quarters of 2013, except the 1Q which experienced an upward revision, on the back of updated production data in the 1Q and changes in some countries’ supply profiles.
The anticipated growth is driven mainly by supply from the Latin America, Africa and Other Asia, while the Middle East supply is seen to decline. On a quarterly basis, DCs’ total oil production is seen to stand at 12.14 mb/d, 12.16 mb/d, 12.36 mb/d and 12.48 mb/d, respectively. During the first quarter, preliminary data indicated that DC oil supply decreased by 0.15 mb/d, compared with the same period of 2012.
Other Asia’s oil supply is estimated to increase by 30 tb/d in 2013 to average 3.66 mb/d, unchanged from the previous assessment. This steady state came despite minor revisions that offset each other mainly on updated production data. Oil supply from Malaysia and Vietnam is expected to increase in 2013, while supply from Indonesia is seen to decline. Malaysia’s oil production is expected to average 0.72 mb/d in 2013, indicating an increase of 60 tb/d compared to last year, the largest growth among the region.
The growth is supported by the new volume from the Gumusut developments. Vietnam oil production is forecast to increase by 10 tb/d in 2013, to average 0.39 mb/d. This minor increase is supported by the startup of the Hai SU Trang and Sai SU Den, which brought online recently. On a quarterly basis, Other Asia’s supply is expected to stand at 3.64 mb/d, 3.65 mb/d, 3.67 mb/d and 3.68 mb/d, respectively. Preliminary data suggests that Other Asia supply decreased by 20 tb/d during the 1Q compared to the same period a year earlier.
Indonesia’s oil supply is forecast to decline by 50 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.92 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month. This drop is expected on the back of aging fields and natural declines, coupled with limited new developments. Additionally, the imposed antidumping tax on the country biodiesel export to Europe could impact the production. The government plans to propose cutting the 2013 production target by 7% less than the current level in the budget. The national regulator provided that it would be impossible to reach the budget output level. India oil production is expected to experience a decline of 10 tb/d in 2013 and average 0.88 mb/d, indicating a downward revision of 5 tb/d compared to previous MOMR. The downward revision came on the back of carrying over the production adjustment from the 1Q.