US Oil Supply – June 2013

US oil production is expected to average 10.68 mb/d in 2013, representing growth of 0.64 mb/d over last year and following an upward revision of 50 tb/d from the previous report. The current forecast for US supply is the highest since 1973. A minor downward revision impacted first quarter output due to adjustments to actual production figures, while an upward revision was introduced to the other three quarters of the year, which more than offset the downward one.

US supply growth in 2013 is the highest among all non-OPEC countries and is expected to be a strong contributor to total non-OPEC supply growth. The forecast is supported by strong growth from tight oil developments. Anticipated maintenance at Gulf of Mexico production sites is seen to impact growth in 2013. The closure of a gas processing plant in early May for over a month is expected to impact the output of few fields such as Thunder Horse and Na Kika. However, the increase in deep-water drilling activities in the Gulf of Mexico could support output.

Texas oil supply averaged 2.33 mb/d in 1Q13, an increase of 0.55 mb/d from the same period a year ago, according to preliminary data. This growth is supported by the increase in tight oil supply, mainly from Eagle Ford, where production reached 0.53 mb/d in March, more than 70% higher than the same month a year earlier. Moreover, North Dakota oil production increased by 0.21mb/d in the first quarter, compared with the same quarter last year. This increase is supported by developments in the Bakken area. However, risks remain on the high side for the US supply forecast, since the hurricane season has begun and the official forecast expects an “active or extremely active” hurricane season this year, which could impact production in the coming period. On a quarterly basis, US oil supply is seen to average 10.61 mb/d, 10.73 mb/d, 10.70 mb/d, and 10.68 mb/d, respectively.